Tips 2026-10-26

In the Night games publication, attention turns to North American professional leagues, with several early-evening and early-morning NBA games taking place. NHL hockey and an NFL fixture are also on offer, so the night provides a varied selection of basketball, ice hockey and American football.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as high as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Milwaukee Bucks – Indiana Pacers: Indiana Pacers to win @ 1.62

Statistics. Milwaukee have scored 113.4 and conceded 122.1 points per game over their last 10 games; Indiana's corresponding figures are 116.7 and 117.8. The total-points averages are 235.5 and 234.5; the sample includes 3 games from the 2026–27 season and 7 games from the 2025–26 season for each team. Situation. In the NBA's 14.30 ET (Helsinki time) report, Ivica Zubac, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are out for Indiana; Andrew Nembhard is questionable and Aaron Nesmith probable. Milwaukee have no player designations in the report, and Indiana are playing a back-to-back game after Milwaukee rested following their previous game. Estimate. Milwaukee Bucks: 39.8% · Indiana Pacers: 60.2% Why we play it. Indiana's better scoring level in recent games is counterbalanced by the back-to-back and significant absences. No concrete, sourced reason was found to deviate from the market's fair distribution.

Odds 1.62 · market 60.2% · our estimate 60% · edge -2.5%

Edmonton Oilers – Detroit Red Wings: Edmonton Oilers to win @ 1.61

Statistics. Edmonton's record is 8–3 and Detroit's is 4–7. The Oilers have scored an NHL-leading 4.36 goals per game but conceded 3.55; Tristan Jarry's save percentage at the start of the season is 86.1. Detroit's Michal Postava is making his first NHL start, and his AHL save percentage last season was 93.7. Situation. Tristan Jarry and Michal Postava are confirmed as the starting goaltenders (Daily Faceoff). Neither is playing back-to-back; Detroit conclude their four-game Western road trip in Edmonton. Estimate. Edmonton Oilers: 60.5% · Detroit Red Wings: 39.5% Why we play it. Edmonton's potent attack and home advantage support the favourite, but Jarry's poor start to the season prevents us from lifting the estimate above the market's fair 60.5%.

Odds 1.61 · market 60.5% · our estimate 61% · edge -2.6%

Cleveland Cavaliers – Minnesota Timberwolves: Cleveland Cavaliers to win @ 1.54

Statistics. In Cleveland's 10-game sample, the scoring averages are 119.7 scored and 117.7 conceded, compared with 119.4 and 113.7 for Minnesota. Minnesota have started the season 3–0 and Cleveland 1–1; the samples have been supplemented with games from the 2025–26 season. Situation. In the NBA's official report, Anthony Edwards is questionable due to right knee load management and Donte DiVincenzo is out; Khalifa Diop, Nae’Qwan Tomlin and Ernest Udeh Jr. are out for Cleveland. Minnesota are playing away on consecutive nights, while Cleveland have had one day off. Estimate. Cleveland Cavaliers: 62.3% · Minnesota Timberwolves: 37.7% Why we play it. Cleveland's rest advantage and uncertainty around Edwards support the home team, but the market already appears to account for them. Therefore, the estimate does not differ from the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.54 · market 62.3% · our estimate 62% · edge -4.1%

Houston Rockets – Atlanta Hawks: Houston Rockets to win @ 1.54

Statistics. Houston have scored 123.5 and conceded 111.3 points per game over their last 10 games; Atlanta's corresponding figures are 121.9 and 111.2. Houston won the teams' meeting played on 24.10 121–114 and collected 22 second-chance points from 13 offensive rebounds. Situation. Steven Adams and Marcus Smart are out for Houston, while Mouhamed Gueye and Henri Veesaar are out for Atlanta; Jock Landale is available according to the NBA's official report. Neither is playing back-to-back, and there are no rest- or load management-related absences in the report. Estimate. Houston Rockets: 62.3% · Atlanta Hawks: 37.7% Why we play it. Houston are justified favourites, but given the absences of Smart and Adams, we find no sourced reason to deviate from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.54 · market 62.3% · our estimate 62% · edge -4.1%

Philadelphia Eagles – Dallas Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys to win @ 1.50

Statistics. Philadelphia have scored 17.7 and conceded 22.8 points per game in six games; Dallas's corresponding figures are 25.2 and 26.5. Both are 2–4, but Dallas's offensive scoring average is 7.5 points higher than Philadelphia's. Situation. Philadelphia start Tanner McKee, as Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve. The Eagles are also without DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks, while Saquon Barkley is questionable; Dallas's Dak Prescott is available, but the Cowboys also have three confirmed absences. Estimate. Philadelphia Eagles: 36.4% · Dallas Cowboys: 63.6% Why we play it. Dallas's QB continuity and Philadelphia's offensive absences make the Cowboys the more likely winner. However, we do not deviate from the market's fair estimate, as the situation should already be reflected in the price.

Odds 1.50 · market 63.6% · our estimate 64% · edge -4.6%

Over/Under and Handicap

Over/Under selections concern the game's total goals or points, not the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: game pace, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included; in football, only regulation time counts. In handicap selections, the winning margin is predicted: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Denver Nuggets – Golden State Warriors: Denver Nuggets −7.5 points @ 1.96

Statistics. In Denver's 10-game sample, the scoring averages are 127.0 scored and 118.0 conceded, compared with 111.6 and 119.4 for Golden State. Denver's average points difference is +9.0 and the Warriors' is −7.8; the sample combines the 2026–27 and 2025–26 seasons. Situation. Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porziņģis and Moses Moody are out for the Warriors, while Julian Strawther and Spencer Jones are out for Denver, with Cameron Johnson and Alpha Diallo doubtful. Golden State are playing an away back-to-back from Phoenix to Denver, but the Nuggets have had one day off. Estimate. Denver Nuggets −7.5: 55% · Golden State Warriors +7.5: 45% Why we play it. Game pace and line-ups tilt the estimate towards Denver: the Warriors have to play a travelling back-to-back without three significant rotation players. Denver's own absences keep the edge moderate. Deviation from the market: Game pace and line-ups favour Denver, as Golden State are on an away back-to-back and without three significant rotation players, although Denver's absences also limit the adjustment to the estimate.

Odds 1.96 · market 49.6% · our estimate 55% · edge +7.8%

Edmonton Oilers – Detroit Red Wings: Over 6.5 goals @ 1.78

Statistics. Edmonton's last-10-games figures are 4.4 goals scored and 3.3 conceded per game; Detroit's figures are 2.9 and 3.2. Edmonton's 35.1% power play has a favourable matchup against Detroit's 65.8% penalty kill. Situation. Edmonton's Tristan Jarry (.861) and Detroit's Michal Postava, for whom this is his first NHL start, have been confirmed as starters; Devon Levi is out. Neither is playing on consecutive days, and Detroit conclude their four-game Western road trip. Estimate. Over: 59% · Under: 41% Why we play it. Edmonton's high goalscoring and power-play rate combines with a goaltending pairing in which Jarry's start to the season has been poor and Postava's NHL sample is extremely thin. Deviation from the market: The Over estimate is higher than the market because Edmonton's in-form attack and power play face Detroit's weak penalty kill, while the confirmed starters' NHL goaltending sample is uncertain or poor.

Odds 1.78 · market 54.7% · our estimate 59% · edge +5.0%

Charlotte Hornets – Washington Wizards: Over 228.5 points @ 2.00

Statistics. Charlotte's 10-game total average is 219.0 points (111.3 scored, 107.7 conceded). Washington's figure is 246.8 (117.6 scored, 129.2 conceded), so the combination of the teams' profiles sits above the line. Situation. Washington are playing their second game on consecutive nights, while Charlotte have rested since Sunday. Kon Knueppel, Coby White and Grant Williams are absent for Charlotte, while AJ Dybantsa, Jamir Watkins and Tristan Vukcevic are absent for Washington; this is a regular-season game. Estimate. Over: 51% · Under: 49% Why we play it. Washington's high points total per game and average of 129.2 points conceded provide slight grounds to exceed the market's Over estimate. Charlotte's slower profile and offensive absences keep the edge small. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans slightly above the market because Washington's high-scoring games and weak defence outweigh Charlotte's slower profile and offensive absences.

Odds 2.00 · market 48.7% · our estimate 51% · edge +2.0%

New York Rangers – Los Angeles Kings: Under 5.5 goals @ 2.04

Statistics. The Rangers' last-10-games figures are 3.4 goals scored and 3.2 conceded per game; the Kings' corresponding figures across nine games are 2.3 and 3.6. The Kings have scored fewer than two goals in seven consecutive games, although their 65.5% penalty kill adds opposing risk. Situation. James Reimer, making his club debut, is confirmed to start for the Rangers, while the Kings' Darcy Kuemper is projected but not yet confirmed; Kuemper has posted a 94.7% save percentage in his last two games. Kevin Fiala and Mats Zuccarello are absent for the Kings, Byfield's return is possible, and neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Over: 50% · Under: 50% Why we play it. The Kings' long low-scoring spell, Kuemper's recent form and offensive absences lift the Under estimate slightly above the market. However, the Rangers' strong scoring average and uncertainty around Reimer keep the edge small. Deviation from the market: The Kings' poor recent scoring rate, Kuemper's strong recent form, and the absences of Fiala and Zuccarello lift the Under estimate slightly above the market.

Odds 2.04 · market 47.6% · our estimate 50% · edge +2.0%

Specials

No special bets in this publication.

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