Tips 2026-10-26

Monday's offering is focused on football, with league matches scheduled from the Nordic countries, Turkey and South America. The evening offers intriguing match-ups in the form of both top-of-the-table clashes and encounters played in tight league standings, with some matches not continuing until after midnight Helsinki time.

Likely

Likely selections are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

FC Copenhagen – OB Odense BK: FC Copenhagen to win @ 1.50

Statistics. FCK's record over their last ten matches is 2.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match; OB's corresponding figures are 1.6 and 1.8. The league season's statistics page reports 1.8 xG per match for FCK and 1.3 xG for OB, and the teams' meeting on 6.9. ended in a 5–0 away win for FCK. Situation. FCK played a European match four days before this match, while OB have had eight days' rest; both have a cup match three days later. Absences have been checked: Král, Maseko and Mattsson are absent for FCK, while Martin, Niemiec and Therkildsen are absent for OB; the predicted starting line-ups have not yet been confirmed. Estimate. FC Copenhagen: 64.2% · Draw: 19.6% · OB Odense BK: 16.2% Why we play it. FCK are clear favourites based on their stronger goals and xG profile and the 5–0 head-to-head result in September. The rest difference and FCK's absences, however, balance the match-up, so the estimate is kept exactly at the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.50 · market 64.2% · our estimate 64% · edge -3.7%

Value selections

In value selections, our estimate exceeds the market, meaning we believe the odds are too high. They land less often than favourites, and results fluctuate greatly in the short term – the benefit only becomes apparent across dozens of selections if our estimates are correct.

Instituto de Córdoba – Deportivo Riestra: Instituto de Córdoba to win @ 1.83

Statistics. Instituto's record in their last 10 matches is 6–3–1, with 1.7 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match. Riestra's record is 1–8–1 and their goal averages are 0.6–1.0; only 1/10 of their matches have gone Over 2.5 goals. Situation. Lucas Sanseviero is absent for Instituto, but Giuliano Cerato returns to the squad. Ignacio Arce, Yeison Murillo, Ángel Stringa and Nicolás Sansotre are out for Riestra; the absence of Arce, the goalkeeper who started the previous match, is significant for the visitors, and Instituto have had three more days' rest. Estimate. Instituto de Córdoba 57% · Draw 29% · Deportivo Riestra 14% Why we play it. The line-up and match schedule tilt the estimate towards Instituto: Riestra's starting goalkeeper Arce and three other players are absent, while the home side have a three-day rest advantage.

Odds 1.83 · market 51.6% · our estimate 57% · edge +4.3%

Over/Under and Handicap

In Over/Under selections, the bet is on the match's total goals or points, not the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: match schedule, goalkeepers, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included, while in football only regular time counts. In Handicap selections, the bet is on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Coritiba – Grêmio: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.07

Statistics. Coritiba's goals in their last 10 matches are 1.3 scored and 2.1 conceded per match, and the line was exceeded 7/10 times. Grêmio's corresponding figures are 1.3 and 1.4, with 5/10 overs; xG figures were not available. Situation. The teams have had 8–9 days' rest, so fatigue does not weigh the total down. Captain and centre-back Walter Kannemann is suspended for Grêmio, while Coritiba's defensive midfield is weakened by Thiago Santos's suspension; Lucas Ronier's absence, in turn, weakens the home side's attack. Estimate. Over: 52% · Under: 48% Why we play it. The line has been exceeded frequently in Coritiba's matches due to their high number of goals conceded, and defensive absences support the Over side. Attacking absences and the match's relegation-battle nature keep the deviation from the market moderate. Deviation from the market: Coritiba's high goal total in recent matches, along with the suspensions of Kannemann and Thiago Santos, shift the estimate moderately towards the Over side.

Odds 2.07 · market 48.1% · our estimate 52% · edge +7.6%

Besiktas JK – Basaksehir: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.80

Statistics. In Beşiktaş's last ten matches, the average total goals figure was 3.9 and the 3.5-goal line was exceeded 5/10 times. Başakşehir's matches averaged 2.8 goals, and there were at least four goals in only 3/10 matches. Situation. Orkun Kökçü and Milot Rashica are absent for Beşiktaş, while Fabio Miretti is doubtful; Christopher Operi and Jerome Opoku are doubtful for Başakşehir. Beşiktaş are playing their third match in eight days, while the away side have had seven rest days. Estimate. Over: 42% · Under: 58% Why we play it. The high 3.5-goal line, Başakşehir's more moderate match profile and Beşiktaş's attacking absences shift the estimate more clearly than the market towards the Under option. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans towards the Under market due to Başakşehir's more moderate scoring rate, as well as Beşiktaş's attacking absences and their third match in eight days.

Odds 1.80 · market 53.8% · our estimate 58% · edge +4.4%

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