Wednesday 28 Oct 2026 · 29 picks · 12/29 hit · return 74.3%

Hits

12/29

of all published

Return

74.3%

flat-stake singles

Specials

3/5

return 112.0%

Likely

4/9

return 70.0%

Totals & spreads

5/13

return 74.2%

Value picks

0/2

return 0.0%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (your time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Kärpät – HPKLiigaIce hockeyKärpät to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · NordicBetOdds 1.47 · market 65.3% · our estimate 65% · edge -4.2%i1.47↓ 1.45CLV +0.9 ppafternoonWin1–0 (Kärpät voitti)

Kärpät are favourites at home thanks to better attacking output over the last 10 matches and stronger power-play play. The goalkeepers have been confirmed, and neither team is playing on consecutive days.

JYP – TapparaLiigaIce hockeyJYP to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.67 · market 57.2% · our estimate 57% · edge -4.5%i1.67↓ 1.65CLV +0.7 ppafternoonLoss4–6 (Tappara voitti)

JYP are narrow favourites at home. Their special teams are stronger than Tappara's, but the recent-match goal figures are even, so the estimate is kept at the market's fair 57.2%.

KooKoo – ÄssätLiigaIce hockeyÄssät to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.65 · market 57.8% · our estimate 58% · edge -4.6%i1.65↑ 1.66CLV −0.4 ppafternoonLoss5–3 (KooKoo voitti)

Ässät are justified favourites due to KooKoo's poor recent defending and better special-teams play, but 1.65 does not offer an edge over the market estimate.

IF Brommapojkarna – BK HackenAllsvenskanFootballBK Hacken to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (SE)note: B. Engdahl, Filip Ohman, Kamilcan Sever not in the squadOdds 1.57 · market 61.8% · our estimate 63% · edge -1.1%i1.57↑ 1.60CLV −1.2 ppafternoonLoss0–0 (tasapeli)

Häcken are fourth in the league and on a four-match winning run, while BP have lost their last two. Long-term absences have not disrupted Häcken's form.

Inter Miami CF – FC CincinnatiMLSFootballInter Miami CF to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: T. Allende, F. Caicedo, Mateo Silvetti, T. Malacia, J. Malatini, M. Robinson, E. Echenique not in the squadOdds 1.58 · market 61.0% · our estimate 64% · edge +1.1%i1.58↓ 1.56CLV +0.8 ppnightLoss2–2 (tasapeli)

Inter's Messi–Suárez–Berterame attack is in the starting line-up. Cincinnati are playing their third match in eight days and have several players missing from their defensive line.

Charlotte FC – CF MontrealMLSFootballCharlotte FC to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.67 · market 57.7% · our estimate 58% · edge -3.5%i1.67↑ 1.70CLV −1.1 ppnightWin4–0 (Charlotte voitti)

Charlotte are justified favourites at home, but the confirmed line-ups, absences and fixture schedule provide insufficient reason to depart from the market's fair estimate.

Colorado Avalanche – New Jersey DevilsNHLIce hockeyColorado Avalanche to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.71 · market 56.9% · our estimate 57% · edge -2.7%i1.71↓ 1.69CLV +0.7 ppnightWin5–2 (Colorado Avalanche voitti)

Colorado have home advantage and a clear rest advantage, but New Jersey have won four in a row. The market's 56.9% is a balanced estimate, so there is no source-based reason to depart from it.

Seattle Kraken – Toronto Maple LeafsNHLIce hockeyToronto Maple Leafs to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.75 · market 55.7% · our estimate 56% · edge -2.5%i1.75↑ 1.79CLV −1.3 ppnightLoss5–4 (Seattle Kraken voitti varsinaisella peliajalla)

Toronto are stronger on special teams and marginally at 5-on-5, but Seattle's rest and goaltending advantages balance the match-up. The estimate remains at market level.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC – San Diego FCMLSFootballVancouver Whitecaps FC to winMatch winner (1X2) · LeoVegas (SE)note: A. Cubas, E. Sabbi, S. Adekugbe, K. Cabrera, Rui Modesto not in the squadOdds 1.45 · market 66.5% · our estimate 67% · edge -3.6%i1.45↑ 1.52CLV −3.2 ppnightWin4–1 (Vancouver Whitecaps voitti)

Vancouver are the most likely winners because of San Diego's poor defensive spell, but several significant absences for the hosts balance the picture. The estimate is kept at the market's fair 66.5%.

Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Virtus Segafredo Bologna – ŽalgirisEuroLeagueBasketballVirtus Segafredo Bologna to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleBlind estimate 61% · market 51.9% · edge +12.8%i1.85↑ 1.89CLV −1.1 ppmorningLoss74–91 (Žalgiris voitti)

Why we think the market is wrong: The teams' points profiles are close, but home advantage and Žalgiris's significant backcourt absences tilt the win probability towards Virtus.

The teams' points profiles are close, but home advantage and Žalgiris's significant backcourt absences tilt the win probability towards Virtus.

ASVEL Lyon Villeurbanne – KK Partizan NISEuroLeagueBasketballKK Partizan NIS to winMatch winner · William HillBlind estimate 54% · market 47.4% · edge +8.0%i2.00↓ 1.81CLV +5.3 ppafternoonLoss82–75 (ASVEL voitti)

Why we think the market is wrong: Partizan's early-season defence has been clearly more stable than ASVEL's, and Carlik Jones was rested in the weekend league match.

Partizan's early-season defence has been clearly more stable than ASVEL's, and Carlik Jones was rested in the weekend league match. The away team's three absences limit the estimate.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, goal totals are settled including overtime and the shootout; the shootout counts as one goal. In football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Venezia – Inter MilanSerie AFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · LeoVegas (SE)Odds 1.97 · market 50.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +6.4%i1.97↓ 1.90CLV +1.9 ppmorningWin0–2 → 2 maalia, raja 3,5

The line was exceeded 9 times in the teams' combined sample of their last 20 matches. Venezia's limited scoring, L. Martinez's absence and Inter's congested schedule support Under 3.5.

AC Milan – BolognaSerie AFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · CoolbetOdds 2.07 · market 47.6% · our estimate 51% · edge +5.6%i2.07↓ 1.84CLV +6.0 ppmorningLoss2–4 → 6 maalia, raja 2,5

Bologna's attack is affected by the absences of Orsolini and Piccoli. Milan have a demanding run of fixtures and a derby ahead, increasing the possibility of rotation and a controlled style of play.

Juve Stabia – Hellas VeronaSerie BFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 1.96 · market 49.6% · our estimate 53% · edge +2.9%i1.96↓ 1.88CLV +2.2 ppafternoonLoss0–1 → 1 maalia, raja 2,5

In Verona's 10-match sample, 8/10 went over 2.5 goals and the total-goal average was 3.5. Juve Stabia's corresponding average was 2.8; Verona's absences and rotation limit the uplift.

Bragantino-SP – ChapecoenseBrasileirão Série AFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Coolbetnote: Tiago Volpi, Yago Felipe not in the squadOdds 1.80 · market 54.1% · our estimate 61% · edge +9.8%i1.80↑ 2.01CLV −5.8 ppafternoonWin3–0 → 3 maalia, raja 3,5

The teams' recent-match total-goal average is 2.7–2.8, and Over 3.5 occurred in only 2/10 Bragantino matches and 3/10 Chapecoense matches. Garcez being rested supports the Under side.

Fluminense – InternacionalBrasileirão Série AFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Grosvenornote: S. Rochet, Martinelli, John Kennedy not in the squadOdds 2.04 · market 48.0% · our estimate 52% · edge +6.1%i2.04↓ 1.98CLV +1.5 ppafternoonWin2–1 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

Both sides' 10-match total-goal average is 2.8 and Over 2.5 has landed in 7/10 for Fluminense and 6/10 for Inter. Inter's two experienced goalkeepers are out or doubtful.

Santos – PalmeirasBrasileirão Série AFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Casumonote: Gabriel Brazão, Lucas Veríssimo, R. Sosa not in the squadOdds 1.93 · market 51.5% · our estimate 53% · edge +2.3%i1.93↓ 1.88CLV +1.4 ppafternoonLoss0–0 → 0 maalia, raja 2,5

In Santos's 10-match sample, 8/10 exceeded the line and matches averaged 3.4 goals. Neymar's absence limits the estimate, but Santos's defensive and goalkeeper absences support a slight lean towards Over.

Remo – BotafogoBrasileirão Série AFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Grosvenornote: Zé Ivaldo not in the squadOdds 2.20 · market 43.7% · our estimate 49% · edge +7.8%i2.20→ 2.20CLV 0.0 ppafternoonLoss2–1 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

Remo's 10-match goal-expectation profile is low and key players Danilo and Montoro are absent for Botafogo. The absence of Remo centre-back Zé Ivaldo nevertheless limits the rise in the Under estimate.

Indiana Pacers – Philadelphia 76ersNBABasketballUnder 234.5 pointsOver/Under 234.5 points · CoolbetOdds 1.95 · market 49.6% · our estimate 54% · edge +5.3%i1.95↓ 1.91CLV +1.1 ppnightWin109–114 → 223 pistettä, raja 234,5

The total estimate derived from the teams' 10-match scoring profiles is 222.2. Indiana are also on a consecutive game day, while Haliburton and Nembhard are doubtful.

New England Revolution – New York Red BullsMLSFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: J. Harrison, A. Yusuf, J. Bazán not in the squadOdds 1.88 · market 51.7% · our estimate 58% · edge +9.0%i1.88↓ 1.82CLV +1.8 ppnightLoss3–2 → 5 maalia, raja 3,5

RBNY's recent matches have been low scoring, and the four-goal mark was exceeded in only 3/10 and 2/10 of the teams' last 10 matches. New England are also without forward Leo Campana.

Toronto Raptors – Orlando MagicNBABasketballUnder 223.5 pointsOver/Under 223.5 points · PinnacleOdds 1.96 · market 49.6% · our estimate 54% · edge +5.8%i1.96line movednightLoss129–99 → 228 pistettä, raja 223,5

Banchero, Suggs and Leonard are out, weakening both offences' scoring output. The total-points averages over the first three matches of the season are 217.3 and 226.0.

Minnesota Timberwolves – Golden State WarriorsNBABasketballUnder 227.5 pointsOver/Under 227.5 points · PinnacleOdds 1.94 · market 50.0% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.8%i1.94↑ 1.96CLV −0.5 ppnightLoss114–119 → 233 pistettä, raja 227,5

Anthony Edwards is out, the Warriors are missing three important rotation players and Golden State are playing their second match on consecutive nights. This leans the estimate modestly towards under 227.5 points.

Chicago Bulls – New York KnicksNBABasketballUnder 232.5 pointsOver/Under 232.5 points · CoolbetOdds 1.92 · market 50.9% · our estimate 54% · edge +3.7%i1.92↑ 2.01CLV −2.3 ppnightLoss127–133 → 260 pistettä, raja 232,5

The Knicks' 10-match average total is 216.2 and the team are playing on the second consecutive night. The Bulls' high 238.4 average and Claxton's absence limit the under estimate to 54%.

Minnesota United FC – Sporting Kansas CityMLSFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 1.89 · market 51.4% · our estimate 57% · edge +7.7%i1.89↓ 1.85CLV +1.1 ppnightWin3–1 → 4 maalia, raja 3,5

8/10 of Minnesota's recent matches and 6/10 of Sporting KC's went over 3.5 goals. SKC have conceded 77 league goals and have an xGA of 75.0, so the estimate leans over rather than the proposed under.

SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA; and shots and shots on target in football. Hockey and basketball picks are published with a confirmed line-up; a football pick may be published before the line-up is announced and is voided under the bookmaker's rule if the player does not start. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
El Bilal TouréParma – Udinese · Serie AFootballEl Bilal Touré Over 0.5 shots on targetShots on target Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.85 · market 54.1% · our estimate 62% · edge +14.7%i1.85↓ 1.79CLV +1.8 ppmorningLoss0 laukausta maalia kohti, raja 0,5 · 74 min

Last 10: 6/10 over 0.5 · 73 min

Touré has registered at least one shot on target in 6/10 matches. Udinese have allowed forwards 3.6 shots on target per match, and have absences in defence.

Eemil ErholtzKärpät – HPK · LiigaIce hockeyEemil Erholtz Over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.88 · market 49.1% · our estimate 61% · edge +14.7%i1.88→ 1.88CLV 0.0 ppafternoonLoss0 pistettä, raja 0,5

Last 18: 9/18 over 0.5 · TOI 17:49

Erholtz has registered a point in 8/10 recent matches, is confirmed on the second line and his ice time over the last five matches has risen to 19:04.

Connor McDavidEdmonton Oilers – Calgary Flames · NHLIce hockeyConnor McDavid over 1.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 1.5 · CoolbetOdds 1.73 · market 54.7% · our estimate 63% · edge +9.0%i1.73↓ 1.68CLV +1.7 ppnightWinMcDavid sai 2 syöttöpistettä ottelussa

Last 20: 12/20 over 1.5 · TOI 23:23

McDavid is at the heart of the projected first line and PP1; he exceeded the line in 7/10 recent matches. Calgary's in-form starter Devin Cooley tempers the estimate.

Chandler StephensonSeattle Kraken – Toronto Maple Leafs · NHLIce hockeyChandler Stephenson over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · PinnacleOdds 1.91 · market 50.3% · our estimate 60% · edge +14.6%i1.91→ 1.91CLV 0.0 ppnightWinStephenson teki maalin ja syötti yhden ottelussa

Last 20: 12/20 over 0.5 · TOI 17:31

Stephenson has recorded a point in 6/10 and 12/20 recent matches. His projected place on the second line and PP1 supports the 60% empirical estimate.

Matty BeniersSeattle Kraken – Toronto Maple Leafs · NHLIce hockeyMatty Beniers under 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · CoolbetOdds 1.96 · market 48.6% · our estimate 54% · edge +5.8%i1.96↓ 1.86CLV +2.7 ppnightWinBerniers sai 2 syöttöpistettä ottelussa

Last 20: 12/20 under 0.5 · TOI 17:55

Beniers was scoreless in 7/10 recent matches, but the first-line and PP1 role plus Toronto's 3.5 goals conceded/match lower the under estimate to 59%.

Past results are no guarantee of future results.