Wednesday 28 Oct 2026 · Morning · published

Tips 2026-10-28

Result: 1/4 hit · return 49.3%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (your time)StatusResult
Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Virtus Segafredo Bologna – ŽalgirisEuroLeagueBasketballVirtus Segafredo Bologna to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleBlind estimate 61% · market 51.9% · edge +12.8%i1.85↑ 1.89CLV −1.1 ppLoss74–91 (Žalgiris voitti)

Why we think the market is wrong: The teams' points profiles are close, but home advantage and Žalgiris's significant backcourt absences tilt the win probability towards Virtus.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, goal totals are settled including overtime and the shootout; the shootout counts as one goal. In football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
Venezia – Inter MilanSerie AFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · LeoVegas (SE)Odds 1.97 · market 50.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +6.4%i1.97↓ 1.90CLV +1.9 ppWin0–2 → 2 maalia, raja 3,5
AC Milan – BolognaSerie AFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · CoolbetOdds 2.07 · market 47.6% · our estimate 51% · edge +5.6%i2.07↓ 1.84CLV +6.0 ppLoss2–4 → 6 maalia, raja 2,5
SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA; and shots and shots on target in football. Hockey and basketball picks are published with a confirmed line-up; a football pick may be published before the line-up is announced and is voided under the bookmaker's rule if the player does not start. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
El Bilal TouréParma – Udinese · Serie AFootballEl Bilal Touré Over 0.5 shots on targetShots on target Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.85 · market 54.1% · our estimate 62% · edge +14.7%i1.85↓ 1.79CLV +1.8 ppLoss0 laukausta maalia kohti, raja 0,5 · 74 min

Last 10: 6/10 over 0.5 · 73 min

Past results are no guarantee of future results.

Wednesday's schedule features plenty of top-class Italian sport, with several intriguing football matches being played in Serie A. There is also an evening clash in basketball's EuroLeague, offering both battles for league points and top-level international basketball.

Value bets

In value bets, our estimate exceeds the market, meaning we believe the odds are too high. They land less often than favourites, and results fluctuate significantly in the short term – the benefit only becomes apparent over dozens of selections if our estimates are correct.

Virtus Segafredo Bologna – Žalgiris: Virtus Segafredo Bologna to win @ 1.85

Statistics. Virtus have scored 86.6 and conceded 86.9 points per game in seven EuroLeague matches; Žalgiris's corresponding figures are 85.0 and 86.0. The teams' records are 4–3 for Virtus and 3–4 for Žalgiris, so the statistical baseline is fairly even. Situation. Virtus will be without Tommaso Baldasso. Žalgiris travelled without Nigel Williams-Goss, Dovydas Giedraitista, Deividas Sirvydisiä and Marek Blaževičiä, while returning Keenan Evans is expected to have limited minutes; neither team is playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Virtus Segafredo Bologna: 61% · Žalgiris: 39% Why we are betting. Home advantage, along with the absences of Žalgiris's key playmaker Williams-Goss and three other players who did not travel, tilt the estimate towards Virtus. Evans's return helps the visitors, but his role is still limited. Deviation from the market: The absences of Žalgiris's key playmaker Nigel Williams-Goss and three other players who did not travel, as well as Keenan Evans's limited return, tilt the estimate towards Virtus Segafredo Bologna.

Odds 1.85 · market 51.9% · our estimate 61% · edge +12.9%

Over/Under and Handicap

In Over/Under bets, the wager is on the match's total number of goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: match pace, goalkeepers, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included; in football, only regulation time counts. In Handicap bets, the wager is on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Venezia – Inter Milan: Under 3.5 goals @ 1.97

Statistics. Venezia's ten-match average goals total is 3.1, and the line was exceeded 4/10 times. In Inter's matches, the average is 4.0 and Over 3.5 landed 5/10 times; in Serie A, Inter's goals are 23–10 in eight matches and xG is 23.2. Situation. Inter will be without L. Martinez, Pavard, Stones, Luis Henrique and C. Jones, while Venezia have four reported absences. Inter are playing for the third time in eight days, and the AC Milan derby awaits in just three days; kick-off has been confirmed for Wednesday at 19.30 (Helsinki time). Estimate. Over: 46% · Under: 54% Why we are betting. In the teams' combined sample of 20 matches, Over 3.5 landed only 9 times. Venezia's 1.0 goals scored per match, along with Inter's attacking absence and congested schedule, tilt the estimate moderately towards Under compared with the market expectation. Deviation from the market: The Under estimate is higher than the market because the line was exceeded in only 9/20 matches, Venezia have scored 1.0 goals/match and Inter will be without L. Martinez in their third match in eight days.

Odds 1.97 · market 50.4% · our estimate 54% · edge +6.4%

AC Milan – Bologna: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.07

Statistics. AC Milan have scored 1.8 and conceded 1.1 goals per match in their last ten matches; Over 2.5 landed 5/10 times. Bologna's figures are 0.9 scored and 1.5 conceded, with Over 2.5 goals in 4/10 matches. Situation. Bologna will be without attacking players Riccardo Orsolini and Roberto Piccoli, although Odgaard has deputised for Piccoli up front. Milan are playing their third match in eight days and face Inter in just three days; the official preview mentions possible rotation, but Milan's defensive absences temper confidence in Under. Estimate. Over: 49% · Under: 51% Why we are betting. Bologna's attacking absences, along with Milan's congested schedule and the upcoming derby, shift the estimate slightly more towards a low-scoring game than the market. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards Under than the market because Bologna will be without two significant attacking players and Milan are playing their third match in eight days before the derby.

Odds 2.07 · market 47.6% · our estimate 51% · edge +5.6%

Special bets

In special bets, the wager is on an individual player's statistic: in the NHL, points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves; in Liiga, points, goals, assists or shots; in the NBA, points, rebounds, assists or three-pointers; and in football, shots and shots on target. Ice hockey and basketball selections are published with confirmed line-ups; a football selection may be published before the line-ups are announced and is voided under the bookmaker's rule if the player does not start. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the rationale is always specified.

Parma – Udinese: El Bilal Touré Over 0.5 shots on target @ 1.85

Statistics. Touré has registered at least one shot on target in 6/10 recent matches, averaging 0.6. His playing time has averaged 72:48, and 71:12 per match in the last five. Situation. Touré has been named in the matchday squad, started the last five and is predicted to be in the front two in a 3–5–2 formation; the starting line-up has not yet been confirmed, and the server will check it before the match. Udinese allow forwards 3.6 shots on target per match, and have absences in defence. Estimate. Over: 62% · Under: 38% Why we are betting. In addition to the 60% strike rate in recent matches, today's opponent profile and Udinese's defensive absences raise the Over estimate slightly. Deviation from the market: The estimate is slightly above the 60% sample because Udinese allow forwards plenty of shots on target and have absences in defence.

Odds 1.85 · market 54.1% · our estimate 62% · edge +14.7%

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