Thursday 8 Oct 2026 · 25 picks · 14/25 hit · return 95.9%

Hits

14/25

of all published

Return

95.9%

flat-stake singles

Value picks

1/1

return 186.0%

Likely

9/15

return 94.3%

Totals & spreads

4/7

return 114.0%

Specials

0/2

return 0.0%

Match	Sport	Pick	Odds	Kick-off (Helsinki time)	Status	Result
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
Maccabi Tel Aviv – Pallacanestro Olimpia MilanoEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Maccabi Tel Aviv to winMatch winner · 888Odds 1.67 · market 56.9% · our estimate 57% · edge -5.1%i	1.67CLV +11.7 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 19:00Thu 8 Oct19:00morning	Win	97–79 (Maccabi Tel Aviv voitti)
		Maccabi are narrow market favourites, but their 0–3 start and a home match played in Belgrade provide no reason to raise the estimate above the market's 56.8%.
Maccabi are narrow market favourites, but their 0–3 start and a home match played in Belgrade provide no reason to raise the estimate above the market's 56.8%.
FC Bayern München – Virtus Segafredo BolognaEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	FC Bayern München to winMatch winner · 1xBetOdds 1.43 · market 67.4% · our estimate 67% · edge -3.6%i	1.43CLV +2.2 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 21:00Thu 8 Oct21:00morning	Loss	87–94 (Virtus Segafredo Bologna voitti)
		Bayern are home favourites and have all 15 professional players available, but Virtus' strong rebounding and both sides' 1–2 EuroLeague starts keep the estimate at market level.
Bayern are home favourites and have all 15 professional players available, but Virtus' strong rebounding and both sides' 1–2 EuroLeague starts keep the estimate at market level.
Panathinaikos – Fenerbahce SKEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Panathinaikos to winMatch winner · 1xBetOdds 1.54 · market 62.6% · our estimate 63% · edge -3.6%i	1.54CLV +6.2 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 21:15Thu 8 Oct21:15morning	Win	92–74 (Panathinaikos voitti)
		Both have started the EuroLeague 3–0, but Panathinaikos are favourites at home. Significant absences on both sides support retaining the market's fair 62.6% estimate.
Both have started the EuroLeague 3–0, but Panathinaikos are favourites at home. Significant absences on both sides support retaining the market's fair 62.6% estimate.
Palmeiras – BahiaBrasileirão Série A	Football⚽	Palmeiras to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.64 · market 61.0% · our estimate 59% · edge -3.2%i	1.64	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 03:30Fri 9 Oct03:30morning	Win	1–0 (Palmeiras voitti)
		Palmeiras are strong at home and defend compactly, but Bahia's good away record keeps the win probability below the level required by odds of 1.64.
Palmeiras are strong at home and defend compactly, but Bahia's good away record keeps the win probability below the level required by odds of 1.64.
Fluminense – CoritibaBrasileirão Série A	Football⚽	Fluminense to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibetnote: G. Cano, Lucas Ronier not in the squadOdds 1.53 · market 62.9% · our estimate 63% · edge -3.8%i	1.53	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 03:30Fri 9 Oct03:30morning	Win	4–0 (Fluminense voitti)
		Fluminense are clear home favourites: recent goal difference and league position support this. The estimate is still at the market anchor level, not value odds.
Fluminense are clear home favourites: recent goal difference and league position support this. The estimate is still at the market anchor level, not value odds.
HJK Helsinki – VPS VaasaVeikkausliiga	Football⚽	HJK Helsinki to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (SE)note: M. Marković, T. Cissokho, L. Lappalainen not in the squadOdds 1.60 · market 57.0% · our estimate 57% · edge -9.0%i	1.60CLV +1.3 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 18:00Thu 8 Oct18:00afternoon	Win	6–0 (HJK Helsinki voitti)
		HJK are home favourites and VPS's attacking output has been limited to 0.8 goals per match over their last 10 matches. HJK's three confirmed absences prevent the market estimate from being raised.
HJK are home favourites and VPS's attacking output has been limited to 0.8 goals per match over their last 10 matches. HJK's three confirmed absences prevent the market estimate from being raised.
Jokerit – HIFKLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Jokerit to win the matchMatch winner · NordicBetOdds 1.68 · market 57.3% · our estimate 57% · edge -3.7%i	1.68CLV +4.4 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 18:30Thu 8 Oct18:30afternoon	Win	3–2 JA (Jokerit voitti jatkoajalla)
		Jokerit have home advantage and starting goaltender Tomi Karhunen is confirmed. HIFK's better attacking and power-play form balances the match-up, so the estimate remains in line with the market.
Jokerit have home advantage and starting goaltender Tomi Karhunen is confirmed. HIFK's better attacking and power-play form balances the match-up, so the estimate remains in line with the market.
JoKP – KeuPa HTMestis	Ice hockey🏒	JoKP to win the matchMatch winner · CoralOdds 1.33 · market 69.3% · our estimate 69% · edge -7.8%i	1.33CLV +1.6 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 18:30Thu 8 Oct18:30afternoon	Win	3–2 (JoKP voitti)
		JoKP are clear favourites at home, but the early-season results provide no source-based justification for raising the estimate above the market's 69.3%.
JoKP are clear favourites at home, but the early-season results provide no source-based justification for raising the estimate above the market's 69.3%.
KuPS Kuopio – AC OuluVeikkausliiga	Football⚽	KuPS Kuopio to winMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.56 · market 61.7% · our estimate 62% · edge -3.8%i	1.56CLV +1.3 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 19:00Thu 8 Oct19:00afternoon	Loss	0–1 (AC Oulu voitti)
		KuPS are justified home favourites, but their recent low-scoring profile leaves a significant share for the draw. The estimate is kept at the market's fair distribution.
KuPS are justified home favourites, but their recent low-scoring profile leaves a significant share for the draw. The estimate is kept at the market's fair distribution.
Dubai Basketball – KK Crvena zvezdaEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Dubai Basketball to winMatch winner · BoyleSportsOdds 1.33 · market 71.9% · our estimate 72% · edge -4.4%i	1.33CLV ±0.0 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 19:00Thu 8 Oct19:00afternoon	Loss	58–77 (KK Crvena zvezda voitti)
		Dubai have started the EuroLeague 2–0 at home, but their line-up also has significant absences. The sources do not provide sufficient grounds to deviate from the market's fair 71.9%.
Dubai have started the EuroLeague 2–0 at home, but their line-up also has significant absences. The sources do not provide sufficient grounds to deviate from the market's fair 71.9%.
Ottawa Senators – Philadelphia FlyersNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Ottawa Senators to winMatch winner · Betfair SportsbookOdds 1.59 · market 60.5% · our estimate 60% · edge -4.0%i	1.59CLV +0.6 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:00Fri 9 Oct02:00night	Win	2–1 (Ottawa Senators voitti)
		Ottawa are the more likely winner thanks to a strong early season and confirmed Ullmark. Woll's good start and Ottawa's congested schedule prevent the estimate from being raised above the market anchor.
Ottawa are the more likely winner thanks to a strong early season and confirmed Ullmark. Woll's good start and Ottawa's congested schedule prevent the estimate from being raised above the market anchor.
Montréal Canadiens – Nashville PredatorsNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Montréal Canadiens to win (incl. overtime and shootout)Match winner · Paddy PowerOdds 1.65 · market 58.2% · our estimate 58% · edge -4.0%i	1.65CLV ±0.0 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:00Fri 9 Oct02:00night	Loss	2–5 (Nashville Predators voitti)
		Montreal are home favourites, but the Fowler–Saros goaltending match-up gives no evidence-based reason to raise the estimate above the market's 58.2%. I retain the market anchor as is.
Montreal are home favourites, but the Fowler–Saros goaltending match-up gives no evidence-based reason to raise the estimate above the market's 58.2%. I retain the market anchor as is.
New York Islanders – Chicago BlackhawksNHL	Ice hockey🏒	New York Islanders to winMatch winner · Paddy PowerOdds 1.56 · market 61.6% · our estimate 63% · edge -1.7%i	1.56CLV ±0.0 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:30Fri 9 Oct02:30night	Win	4–1 (New York Islanders voitti)
		Sorokin is confirmed in goal for the Islanders and started the season with 61 saves from 63 shots. Chicago are without Bedard and Teräväinen, but the absences of Barzal and Romanov for the Islanders limit the increase.
Sorokin is confirmed in goal for the Islanders and started the season with 61 saves from 63 shots. Chicago are without Bedard and Teräväinen, but the absences of Barzal and Romanov for the Islanders limit the increase.
Arkansas State Red Wolves – South Alabama JaguarsNCAA top-25	American football🏈	Arkansas State Red Wolves to winMatch winner · Betfred (UK)Odds 1.69 · market 56.6% · our estimate 57% · edge -4.3%i	1.69CLV +1.8 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:30Fri 9 Oct02:30night	Loss	49–56 (South Alabama Jaguars voitti)
		Arkansas State have won both home matches, while South Alabama have lost both away matches. The Jaguars' clearly more efficient attack and A-State's RB concerns keep the estimate close to the market.
Arkansas State have won both home matches, while South Alabama have lost both away matches. The Jaguars' clearly more efficient attack and A-State's RB concerns keep the estimate close to the market.
St Louis Blues – San Jose SharksNHL	Ice hockey🏒	St Louis Blues to win the matchMatch winner · Paddy PowerOdds 1.69 · market 56.6% · our estimate 59% · edge -1.1%i	1.69CLV ±0.0 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 03:00Fri 9 Oct03:00night	Loss	2–3 JA (San Jose Sharks voitti jatkoajalla)
		Hofer is the confirmed starter and has started the season strongly. San Jose give Nedeljkovic his first start of the season, and star player Celebrini remains day-to-day.
Hofer is the confirmed starter and has started the season strongly. San Jose give Nedeljkovic his first start of the season, and star player Celebrini remains day-to-day.
Value picksOur estimate beats the market
Buffalo Sabres – Dallas StarsNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Dallas Stars to winMatch winner · PinnacleBlind estimate 55% · market 52.4% · edge +2.3%i	1.86CLV −0.5 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:00Fri 9 Oct02:00night	Win	0–4 (Dallas Stars voitti)
		Why we think the market is wrong: Dallas have a clear goaltending advantage: Oettinger is confirmed, Luukkonen only projected, and their early-season save percentages are .943 and .784. Dallas have a clear goaltending advantage: Oettinger is confirmed, Luukkonen only projected, and their early-season save percentages are .943 and .784.
Why we think the market is wrong: Dallas have a clear goaltending advantage: Oettinger is confirmed, Luukkonen only projected, and their early-season save percentages are .943 and .784. Dallas have a clear goaltending advantage: Oettinger is confirmed, Luukkonen only projected, and their early-season save percentages are .943 and .784.
Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey overtime and the shootout count; in football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
FC Bayern München – Virtus Segafredo BolognaEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Over 170.5 pointsOver/Under 170.5 points · 888Odds 1.91 · market 50.6% · our estimate 53% · edge +1.2%i	1.91line moved	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 21:00Thu 8 Oct21:00morning	Win	87–94 → 181 pistettä, raja 170,5
		Virtus' fast transition play and the teams' EuroLeague match averages of 170.0 and 170.7 points narrowly support the over line; squad availability is near-full.
Virtus' fast transition play and the teams' EuroLeague match averages of 170.0 and 170.7 points narrowly support the over line; squad availability is near-full.
Valencia Basket – Hapoel Tel AvivEuroLeague	Basketball🏀	Over 180.5 pointsOver/Under 180.5 points · LiveScore BetOdds 1.93 · market 49.5% · our estimate 53% · edge +2.3%i	1.93line moved	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 21:30Thu 8 Oct21:30morning	Loss	93–82 → 175 pistettä, raja 180,5
		Valencia's offence has started exceptionally efficiently, and the team's three EuroLeague matches have produced 190–199 points. Hapoel's attacking personnel narrowly support the over estimate.
Valencia's offence has started exceptionally efficiently, and the team's three EuroLeague matches have produced 190–199 points. Hapoel's attacking personnel narrowly support the over estimate.
Atletico Paranaense – Atletico MineiroBrasileirão Série A	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · bet365note: Gustavo Scarpa, Ruan Tressoldi not in the squadOdds 2.10 · market 44.7% · our estimate 49% · edge +2.9%i	2.10	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:00Fri 9 Oct02:00morning	Win	2–2 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5
		Athletico's 10-match goal average is 3.4 and Over 2.5 landed in 6/10. Atlético-MG's first-choice goalkeeper Everson is absent, and the predicted starting line-up puts Gabriel Delfim in goal.
Athletico's 10-match goal average is 3.4 and Over 2.5 landed in 6/10. Atlético-MG's first-choice goalkeeper Everson is absent, and the predicted starting line-up puts Gabriel Delfim in goal.
Fluminense – CoritibaBrasileirão Série A	Football⚽	Over 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: G. Cano, John Kennedy, Lucas Ronier not in the squadOdds 1.92 · market 50.4% · our estimate 53% · edge +1.8%i	1.92	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 03:30Fri 9 Oct03:30morning	Win	4–0 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5
		The line was exceeded in 7/10 of Coritiba's matches and the team conceded 1.9 goals per match. Fluminense's significant attacking absences nevertheless temper the increase in the over estimate.
The line was exceeded in 7/10 of Coritiba's matches and the team conceded 1.9 goals per match. Fluminense's significant attacking absences nevertheless temper the increase in the over estimate.
JoKP – KeuPa HTMestis	Ice hockey🏒	Over 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.16 · market 45.5% · our estimate 49% · edge +5.8%i	2.16CLV +1.4 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 18:30Thu 8 Oct18:30afternoon	Loss	3–2 → 5 maalia, raja 6,5
		Both have conceded at least 4.00 goals per match, and their penalty kills are among the weakest in the league. This lifts the estimate for Over 6.5 goals marginally above the market.
Both have conceded at least 4.00 goals per match, and their penalty kills are among the weakest in the league. This lifts the estimate for Over 6.5 goals marginally above the market.
Jokerit – HIFKLiiga	Ice hockey🏒	Over 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.17 · market 45.8% · our estimate 48% · edge +4.2%i	2.17CLV ±0.0 %	Thu, 8 Oct 2026, 18:30Thu 8 Oct18:30afternoon	Loss	2–2 ja 1–0 → 5 maalia, raja 5,5
		HIFK's matches have produced 5.9 goals and Jokerit's matches 5.0 goals. Both teams' weak penalty kills, along with HIFK's 26.1% power play, lift the Over estimate marginally above the market.
HIFK's matches have produced 5.9 goals and Jokerit's matches 5.0 goals. Both teams' weak penalty kills, along with HIFK's 26.1% power play, lift the Over estimate marginally above the market.
New York Islanders – Chicago BlackhawksNHL	Ice hockey🏒	Under 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.05 · market 47.3% · our estimate 50% · edge +2.5%i	2.05CLV ±0.0 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:30Fri 9 Oct02:30night	Win	4–1 → 5 maalia, raja 5,5
		Sorokin is confirmed and has started the season with a 96.8% save percentage. The absences of Bedard, Teräväinen, Mangiapane and Barzal weaken the attacks, although Chicago's defensive figures are a clear over risk.
Sorokin is confirmed and has started the season with a 96.8% save percentage. The absences of Bedard, Teräväinen, Mangiapane and Barzal weaken the attacks, although Chicago's defensive figures are a clear over risk.
SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; and points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA. A pick is published only with a confirmed line-up and voided if the player does not play. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
David PastrnakBoston Bruins – Utah Mammoth · NHL	Ice hockey🏒	David Pastrnak under 3.5 shotsShots on goal Over/Under 3.5 · CoolbetOdds 1.68 · market 55.6% · our estimate 65% · edge +9.2%i	1.68CLV ±0.0 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:00Fri 9 Oct02:00night	Loss	4 laukausta, raja 3,5 · D. Pastrnak laukaukset: 4 (boxscore 2026020056)
		Last 20: 13/20 under 3.5 · shots/60 8.8 · TOI 20:42 Pastrnak has stayed under the line in 6/10 recent matches, and Utah have allowed only 22.3 shots per match early in the season. Ice time over the last five games has dropped to 19:45.
Last 20: 13/20 under 3.5 · shots/60 8.8 · TOI 20:42 Pastrnak has stayed under the line in 6/10 recent matches, and Utah have allowed only 22.3 shots per match early in the season. Ice time over the last five games has dropped to 19:45.
Nikita KucherovTampa Bay Lightning – Minnesota Wild · NHL	Ice hockey🏒	Nikita Kucherov over 2.5 shotsShots on goal Over/Under 2.5 · PinnacleOdds 1.68 · market 56.3% · our estimate 63% · edge +5.8%i	1.68CLV +1.8 %	Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 02:00Fri 9 Oct02:00night	Loss	1 laukausta, raja 2,5 · N. Kucherov laukaukset: 1 (boxscore 2026020060)
		Last 20: 14/20 over 2.5 · shots/60 9.3 · TOI 20:23 Kucherov's empirical over rate across 20 matches is 63%, and recent ice time of 21:15 plus his first-line/PP1 role support shot volume. Wallstedt's form tempers the increase.
Last 20: 14/20 over 2.5 · shots/60 9.3 · TOI 20:23 Kucherov's empirical over rate across 20 matches is 63%, and recent ice time of 21:15 plus his first-line/PP1 role support shot volume. Wallstedt's form tempers the increase.