Tips 2026-10-24

Saturday afternoon and evening offer plenty of football from Europe’s top leagues as well as domestic ice hockey in the Liiga and Mestis. The schedule features not only clashes at the top but also evenly matched league fixtures, while the football offering continues on South American pitches late into the evening. The content is intended for adults, and staking should be kept under your own control.

Likely winners

Likely winners are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker’s margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Borussia Dortmund – Eintracht Frankfurt: Borussia Dortmund to win @ 1.53

Statistics. After six Bundesliga rounds, Dortmund’s goals are 11–4 and Frankfurt’s 10–16. Dortmund have kept four clean sheets and allowed only two big chances; across 10 matches in all competitions, the goals per match are 2.1–0.8 for Dortmund and 3.0–2.4 for Frankfurt. Situation. Dortmund are without Can, Karetsas, Konstantelias, Lerma and Prates; Frankfurt’s Ngankam is absent and Pimpong is doubtful. BVB played away against Sabah four days ago, while Frankfurt have had eight days’ rest. Estimate. Borussia Dortmund: 64.2% · Draw: 19.0% · Eintracht Frankfurt: 16.8% Why we back it. Dortmund are clear home favourites thanks to their strong defence, but the difference in rest and the absences prevent us from deviating from the market’s fair estimate of 64.2%.

Odds 1.53 · market 64.2% · our estimate 64% · edge -1.8%

Modena – Cesena FC: Modena to win @ 1.56

Statistics. In API-Football’s sample, Modena scored an average of 1.8 and conceded 1.4 goals across 8 matches; Over 2.5 goals landed 6/8 times. Cesena FC scored 1.1 and conceded 1.2 goals per match across 10 matches, and Over 2.5 goals landed 4/10 times. Situation. Modena’s 24-man match squad has been announced; a recent preview reports Sersanti, Manquanti and Stenio Zanetti out. For Cesena FC, Klinsmann and Caprini are absent according to the preview, while Schirone and Gelli are being monitored; the teams have had 6–7 rest days. Estimate. Modena: 61.9% · Draw: 22.2% · Cesena FC: 15.9% Why we back it. Modena are clear home favourites, but the sources provide no concrete reason to deviate from the market’s fair distribution.

Odds 1.56 · market 61.9% · our estimate 62% · edge -3.4%

Palmeiras – Bragantino-SP: Palmeiras to win @ 1.59

Statistics. After 31 rounds, Palmeiras are second on 66 points with a goal difference of 54–22, while Bragantino are tenth on 41 points with a goal difference of 39–36. In the last 10-match sample, Palmeiras’ goal averages are 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded, compared with Bragantino’s 1.4 and 1.5. Situation. Palmeiras are recovering from a Libertadores match three days ago and are without, among others, Andreas Pereira, Piquerez and Vitor Roque. Bragantino have had six days’ rest, but also have several absences in their squad; both have a clear stake related to the league table. Estimate. Palmeiras: 60.4% · Draw: 23.0% · Bragantino-SP: 16.6% Why we back it. Palmeiras are justified clear favourites due to their league position and defensive advantage, but the short recovery period and key absences balance the matchup. Our estimate is therefore kept exactly at the market’s fair distribution, without claiming value odds.

Odds 1.59 · market 60.4% · our estimate 60% · edge -4.0%

FC Utrecht – FC Zwolle: FC Utrecht to win @ 1.67

Statistics. Utrecht have scored 1.6 and conceded 2.7 goals per match in their last 10 matches; Over 2.5 goals landed 9/10 times. PEC Zwolle have scored 1.0 and conceded 2.5 goals per match, and Over 2.5 landed 7/10 times. Both have had a six-day break between matches. Situation. Utrecht are without five players and have three doubts, including Artem Stepanov, who has scored 5 goals in six league matches, and goalkeeper Vasilis Barkas. Zwolle are without Sherel Floranus, Filip Krastev and playmaker Younes Namli. Neither has a clear advantage in terms of fixture congestion. Estimate. FC Utrecht: 57.2% · Draw: 22.7% · FC Zwolle: 20.1% Why we back it. Utrecht are the most likely winners of the match at home, but the long absence list and poor defensive record limit confidence. No concrete reason not priced in by the market was found to deviate from the fair market estimate.

Odds 1.67 · market 57.2% · our estimate 57% · edge -4.5%

RoKi – KeuPa HT: RoKi to win @ 1.45

Statistics. RoKi have won 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 32–28 in them; KeuPa HT’s corresponding figures are 4 wins and 29–32 in goals. RoKi won the first head-to-head of the season 5–2 in Keuruu. In the Mestis table before RoKi’s Friday match, RoKi had 18 points from 11 games and goals of 38–27, while KeuPa HT had 16 points from 13 games and goals of 37–47. Situation. Starting goaltenders have been confirmed from the official line-ups: Eetu Hyypiä for RoKi and Jami Pasanen for KeuPa HT. RoKi are playing on consecutive days after Friday’s 3–4 away defeat, while KeuPa HT have rested since their Wednesday match. Estimate. RoKi: 64% · KeuPa HT: 36% Why we back it. RoKi are the more likely winners overall, but the back-to-back situation evens out the matchup. Our estimate matches the market’s fair 64% level, so there are no identified value odds in this selection.

Odds 1.45 · market 64.0% · our estimate 64% · edge -7.2%

Value selections

In value selections, our estimate exceeds the market, meaning we believe the odds are too high. They land less often than favourites, and results fluctuate greatly in the short term – the benefit only becomes visible over dozens of selections if our estimates are correct.

HPK – HIFK: HPK to win @ 1.99

Statistics. HPK’s goals over their last 10 matches are 24–23 and HIFK’s are 27–27. HPK’s PP/PK is 16.1/73.2%, HIFK’s 29.3/75.5%; the starters’ save percentages are 91.32 for Kim Saarinen and 90.31 for Hugo Alnefelt. Situation. Kim Saarinen and Hugo Alnefelt have been confirmed as starters from the Liiga line-ups. HIFK are playing for the second time within 24 hours, and Alnefelt, who posted a 29-save shutout on Friday, starts again; HPK’s previous match was on Thursday. HPK are without six players named in the preview. Estimate. HPK: 54% · HIFK: 46% Why we back it. The schedule and goaltender rotation tilt the estimate towards HPK: the home team are more rested, while HIFK and Alnefelt are playing on consecutive days. HIFK’s clear power-play advantage and HPK’s absences keep the gap moderate.

Odds 1.99 · market 48.2% · our estimate 54% · edge +7.5%

Over/Under and Handicap

Over/Under selections predict the match’s total goals or points, not the winner. The odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: fixture congestion, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included; in football, only regulation time counts. Handicap selections predict the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if Lakers win by at least five.

RB Leipzig – Elversberg: Over 3.5 goals @ 1.76

Statistics. Leipzig’s 10-match averages are 2.5 goals scored and 1.9 conceded, Elversberg’s 2.1 and 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8/10 for Leipzig and 7/10 for Elversberg, and Leipzig have scored 14 goals in their three home league matches. Situation. Probable line-ups have been published: Guiu and Ouédraogo are absent for Leipzig and Nkunku is doubtful, while Seifert and Zimmerschied are absent for Elversberg and three players are doubtful. Leipzig are playing their third match in eight days and may rotate, while Elversberg are expected to be intense and aggressive according to the preview. Estimate. Over: 61% · Under: 39% Why we back it. High total-goal averages, Leipzig’s prolific home attack and Elversberg’s open recent matches favour Over 3.5 goals more than the market does. Deviation from the market: High goal totals in recent matches, Leipzig’s 14 goals in three home matches and Elversberg’s attacking style shift the estimate towards Over.

Odds 1.76 · market 55.9% · our estimate 61% · edge +7.4%

Valencia – Villarreal: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.20

Statistics. In Valencia’s 10-match sample, goals are 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded per match, and Over 2.5 landed 4/10. Villarreal’s corresponding figures are 1.7–1.7 and 7/10. xG unavailable. Situation. Valencia are without, among others, attacking players Sadiq, Canós and Diego López, but the predicted line-up includes Hugo Duro up front. Villarreal played in Liverpool four days earlier, Pépé is absent and changes are predicted in the starting line-up; the kick-off time has been confirmed as 19.30 (Helsinki time). Estimate. Over: 52% · Under: 48% Why we back it. Valencia’s limited goal output and attacking absences support the Under line. Villarreal’s potential rotation after the Champions League match slightly reinforces a lower goal estimate than the market’s. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards Under than the market because Valencia’s weak attacking output and attacking absences combine with Villarreal’s potential rotation after the Champions League match.

Odds 2.20 · market 44.9% · our estimate 48% · edge +5.6%

Napoli – AS Roma: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.93

Statistics. Napoli’s goal record across their last 10 matches is 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded per match, and Over 2.5 landed 5/10 times. Roma’s corresponding figures are 2.4 and 0.8, and 6/10. Situation. Both have four rest days. Napoli lose Buongiorno and Neres, while Roma are without, among others, Dybala, Pellegrini, Kone and first-choice goalkeeper Svilar; Malen returns from suspension. The match starts on Saturday 24.10.2026 at 19.00. Estimate. Over: 54% · Under: 46% Why we back it. Recent match goal totals and the absences of Svilar and Buongiorno tilt the estimate slightly towards Over. Roma’s attacking absences prevent a greater deviation from the market.

Odds 1.93 · market 51.5% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.2%

Kärpät – KalPa: Over 5.5 goals @ 2.17

Statistics. Kärpät’s last 10 matches have produced an average of 6.1 goals: 3.5 scored and 2.6 conceded. KalPa’s corresponding average is 4.9, but their 24.4% power play faces Kärpät’s only 75.6% penalty kill. Situation. The starting goaltenders are Visa Vedenpää and Rasmus Korhonen. The teams also played each other on Friday, so both are in a back-to-back situation; according to Kärpät’s match page, the first meeting ended 5–2. Estimate. Over: 48% · Under: 52% Why we back it. Kärpät’s high goal total in recent matches, KalPa’s favourable special-teams matchup and both teams playing on consecutive days lift the Over estimate moderately above the market anchor. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans slightly Over the market because the total-goal pace across Kärpät’s last 10 matches is 6.1, the special-teams matchup favours KalPa scoring and the teams are playing on consecutive days.

Odds 2.17 · market 45.2% · our estimate 48% · edge +4.2%

Specials

Specials predict an individual player statistic: in the NHL, points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves; in the Liiga, points, goals, assists or shots; in the NBA, points, rebounds, assists or three-pointers; and in football, shots and shots on target. Ice hockey and basketball selections are published with a confirmed line-up; a football selection may be published before the line-up is announced, and it is voided under the bookmaker’s rules if the player does not start. The odds are 1.60–2.20 and the rationale is always specified.

Kärpät – KalPa: Eemil Erholtz Over 0.5 points @ 1.85

Statistics. Erholtz has recorded 9 points in his last 10 matches and gone Over the line 8/10 times; across his last 17 matches, he has gone Over 8/17 times. His average ice time has been 17:39 and 17:51 over the last five. Situation. Erholtz has been confirmed on Kärpät’s second line. KalPa’s starting goaltender Rasmus Korhonen has posted a 93.55% save percentage this season, but KalPa have conceded 2.9 goals per match over their last 10 matches; both teams are playing on consecutive days. Estimate. Over: 59% · Under: 41% Why we back it. The confirmed second-line role, Erholtz’s 8/10 points run and Kärpät’s form of 3.5 goals per match support the Over. Korhonen’s strong start to the season prevents us from raising the estimate above the empirical 59%. Deviation from the market: The estimate remains at the empirical 59%, as the confirmed second-line role and Kärpät’s 3.5-goal form support the Over, but Rasmus Korhonen’s 93.55% save form balances the outlook.

Odds 1.85 · market 49.7% · our estimate 59% · edge +9.1%

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