Tips 2026-10-24

There are plenty of matchups from North America's top leagues on the evening and overnight schedule, with NHL games filling the offering across several different locations. In football, the decisive stages of the MLS bring important encounters, while there is a top-25-level NCAA game in American football. There is therefore both the pace of ice hockey and high-stakes games on the pitch.

Probables

Probables are favourites whose chances of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value selections, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is generally around zero or negative, because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

Texas Longhorns – Ole Miss Rebels: Texas Longhorns to win @ 1.68

Statistics. Texas have scored 30.2 and conceded 17.8 points per game in six games; Ole Miss's corresponding figures are 37.5 and 23.8. Texas have lost their last two games 24–27, while Ole Miss won their last two by a combined score of 83–20. Situation. Arch Manning starts at quarterback for Texas, and Trinidad Chambliss leads the Ole Miss offence. Colin Simmons and Richard Wesley are absent for Texas, Hollywood Smothers is doubtful, and both teams have had seven days' rest. Estimate. Texas Longhorns: 58.2% · Ole Miss Rebels: 41.8% Why we are betting. Texas's home advantage and defence make them a justified favourite, but the sources provide no reason to raise the estimate above the market's fair 58.2%.

Odds 1.68 · market 58.2% · our estimate 58% · edge -2.2%

Utah Mammoth – Tampa Bay Lightning: Utah Mammoth to win @ 1.73

Statistics. Utah have started the season with a 7–4–0 record and Tampa Bay are 7–3–0; both have won three of their last five games. Utah's power play is operating at 38.5%, while the teams' goal averages are 3.73 scored and 3.27 conceded per game for Utah, and 3.39 scored and 2.89 conceded for Tampa. Situation. Daily Faceoff projects Karel Vejmelka and Dennis Hildeby as the goaltenders, but neither has been confirmed. Tampa Bay are playing the second game of a back-to-back and conclude their three-game Western road trip; the official start time is 04.00 (Helsinki time). Estimate. Utah Mammoth: 56.4% · Tampa Bay Lightning: 43.6% Why we are betting. Utah's home advantage and Tampa Bay's back-to-back support their status as favourites, but Hildeby's projected start and Utah's modest goaltending prevent us from raising the estimate above the market's fair 56.4%.

Odds 1.73 · market 56.4% · our estimate 56% · edge -2.4%

Seattle Kraken – Minnesota Wild: Minnesota Wild to win @ 1.65

Statistics. Minnesota have started the season with a 6–3–2 record and a 32–27 goal difference, Seattle with a 7–3–1 record and a 44–37 goal difference (11 games each). Wallstedt's record is 6–2–2 and his save percentage is 91.5. Situation. Wallstedt is Minnesota's projected, but unconfirmed, starter. Sources conflict over Seattle's starter (Grubauer/Daccord), and neither team is playing a back-to-back game. Estimate. Seattle Kraken: 40.9% · Minnesota Wild: 59.1% Why we are betting. The sources did not provide sufficient grounds to raise Minnesota's estimate above the market's fair 59.1%; this is a favourite selection in the probables band, not a proven overpriced line.

Odds 1.65 · market 59.1% · our estimate 59% · edge -2.5%

Edmonton Oilers – Toronto Maple Leafs: Edmonton Oilers to win @ 1.58

Statistics. Edmonton have started the season with an 8–1–1 record and a 47–32 goal difference, Toronto with a 6–4–2 record and a 43–39 goal difference. Edmonton starter Tristan Jarry's save percentage is 87.3 and Sergei Bobrovsky's, projected for Toronto by NHL.com, is 89.5. Situation. Jarry is confirmed as Edmonton's starter, with Devon Levi injured. Bobrovsky is the first goaltender in NHL.com's projected line-up, but Daily Faceoff still listed Stolarz as unconfirmed; neither team is playing on consecutive days, and Edmonton are also without Mattias Ekholm. Estimate. Edmonton Oilers: 61.7% · Toronto Maple Leafs: 38.3% Why we are betting. Edmonton are clear home favourites thanks to their strong start to the season and potent offence, but the goaltending and absence information provides no sourced basis for raising the estimate above the market's fair 61.7%.

Odds 1.58 · market 61.7% · our estimate 62% · edge -2.5%

New Jersey Devils – Los Angeles Kings: New Jersey Devils to win @ 1.54

Statistics. New Jersey have started 6–4–0 and Los Angeles 2–4–2; the Devils have won four of their last five games, the Kings their last two. Confirmed starter Jake Allen is 4–2–0 this season, with a goals-against average of 3.15 and a save percentage of 88.3. Situation. Jake Allen is confirmed as the Devils' starter. Darcy Kuemper is projected as the Kings' starter, but has not yet been confirmed; neither team is playing a back-to-back game. Kevin Fiala and Alex Turcotte are absent for the Kings and Quinton Byfield is a game-time decision, while the Devils have no injuries in the NHL preview. Estimate. New Jersey Devils 63.3% · Los Angeles Kings 36.7% Why we are betting. The Devils are justifiably favourites due to their better start to the season, home advantage and the Kings' attacking absences. However, no concrete reason overlooked by the market was found to deviate from the fair probability, so the estimate remains anchored to the market.

Odds 1.54 · market 63.3% · our estimate 63% · edge -2.5%

Over/Under and handicap

In Over/Under selections, the bet is on the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: game tempo, goaltenders, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and shootout are included; in football, only regulation time counts. In handicap selections, the bet is on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Boston Bruins – San Jose Sharks: Under 6.5 goals @ 1.93

Statistics. Boston's goal record over their last 10 games is 39–22 (3.9 scored and 2.2 conceded/game), San Jose's is 29–34 (2.9 and 3.4). Their power plays have operated at 22.6 and 25.7%, but both penalty kills are at 80.6%. Situation. The starters are confirmed: Jeremy Swayman (92.8%, 1.98 GAA) for Boston and Alex Nedeljkovic (91.7%, 2.37 GAA) for San Jose. Neither is on consecutive game days; absence information is unavailable from the sources used. Estimate. Over: 45% · Under: 55% Why we are betting. The confirmation of Swayman and Nedeljkovic makes the goaltending setup clearly lower-scoring than in the feed's preview, and Boston have conceded only 2.2 goals per game over their last 10 games. Deviation from the market: Due to the confirmed goaltenders, who have had strong starts to the season, and Boston's average of 2.2 goals conceded, the estimate leans more towards under 6.5 goals than the market.

Odds 1.93 · market 50.4% · our estimate 55% · edge +6.2%

D.C. United – FC Cincinnati: Over 3.5 goals @ 1.93

Statistics. D.C. United's goal record over their last 10 games averages 1.0–1.8 and Cincinnati's 1.4–2.5 goals per game. Over 3.5 goals occurred in 3/10 of D.C.'s sample and 7/10 of Cincinnati's; Cincinnati have also conceded 71 goals in 30 MLS games this season. Situation. Both are playing their third game in eight days. Echenique, Malacia, Malatini and Robinson are absent from Cincinnati's defence, while Denkey, Evander, Baribo and Peglow are included in the line-up listing; the listing does not separately state their confirmation status. Estimate. Over: 54% · Under: 46% Why we are betting. Cincinnati's high number of goals conceded, defensive absences and both teams' congested schedule lift the probability of four goals slightly above the market estimate. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans more towards over than the market due to Cincinnati's high number of goals conceded, defensive absences and both teams' congested schedule.

Odds 1.93 · market 51.0% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.2%

Orlando City SC – New York City FC: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.17

Statistics. Orlando's average total goals over their last 10 games has been 4.6, and over 3.5 goals occurred 7/10 times. NYCFC's corresponding overall average is only 2.1 and over 3.5 occurred 1/10 times, but Orlando have scored at least three goals in six of their last nine games. Situation. Orlando are without defender Robin Jansson and suspended Luis Otavio; NYCFC are without Maxi Moralez, while Keaton Parks and Kai Trewin are doubtful according to API-Football. Maxime Crépeau and Matt Freese are projected as the goaltenders, not yet confirmed, and both teams have seven rest days. Estimate. Over: 48% · Under: 52% Why we are betting. Orlando's exceptionally high scoring rate in recent games and a key defensive absence shift the estimate slightly towards the over market. NYCFC's low-scoring nature and strong defence keep the gap small, however. Deviation from the market: Orlando's high scoring rate in recent games and a key defensive absence raise the over estimate slightly above the market, although NYCFC's strong defence and low-scoring nature limit the deviation.

Odds 2.17 · market 46.6% · our estimate 48% · edge +4.2%

Columbus Blue Jackets – Vegas Golden Knights: Over 5.5 goals @ 1.76

Statistics. Columbus have scored 2.5 and conceded 3.6 goals per game in a sample of eight games. Vegas's figures from 10 games are 3.8–3.0, and their 25.0% power play faces Columbus's 70.0% penalty kill. Situation. Cam Talbot starts in goal for Columbus, and Carter Hart is Vegas's projected starter; Hart's save percentage this season is 88.8. Dante Fabbro and Ivan Provorov are absent from Columbus's defence, while Vegas play without Mitch Marner; neither team is on consecutive game days. Estimate. Over: 59% · Under: 41% Why we are betting. Vegas's strong scoring receives a favourable special-teams advantage and faces a depleted Columbus defence. Hart's early-season save percentage also leaves room for Columbus goals. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans over the market because Vegas's efficient offence faces Columbus's weak penalty kill and depleted defence, and Hart's early-season save percentage is 88.8.

Odds 1.76 · market 55.9% · our estimate 59% · edge +3.8%

Specials

No special bets in this publication.

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