Tips 2026-10-24

Saturday's offering focuses on top European football, with fixtures from the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga, Championship and the Portuguese top flight on the schedule. The afternoon brings plenty of simultaneous clashes, and the day's programme continues with late-evening league fixtures.

Likely winners

Likely winners are favourites whose chance of winning we consider at least as likely as the market does. They land more often than value bets, but short odds mean that one loss wipes out several wins. The edge in this band is usually around zero or negative because the odds include the bookmaker's margin – the long-term return is at market level, not above it.

RB Leipzig – Elversberg: RB Leipzig to win @ 1.48

Statistics. RB Leipzig have scored 2.5 and conceded 1.9 goals per match in their last 10 matches; Elversberg's corresponding figures are 2.1 and 1.6. Leipzig have won all three of their league home matches by an aggregate score of 14–0, while Elversberg have 10 points from six matches. Situation. Leipzig are playing their third match in eight days and have had only two full rest days, while Elversberg have had six. Guiu and Ouédraogo are out for Leipzig, while Nkunku is doubtful; Seifert and Zimmerschied are absent for Elversberg, with Darvich and Onyeka doubtful. Probable line-ups have been published, with confirmed line-ups due around an hour before the match. Estimate. RB Leipzig: 66.5% · Draw: 17.7% · Elversberg: 15.7% Why we're backing it. Leipzig's excellent home start makes them clear favourites, but fixture congestion and uncertainty over Nkunku balance the equation. There is no concrete source-based reason to deviate from the market's fair distribution.

Odds 1.48 · market 66.5% · our estimate 67% · edge -1.5%

Como – Sassuolo: Como to win @ 1.52

Statistics. Como's record over their last ten matches is 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match; Over 2.5 goals landed 7/10 times. Sassuolo's corresponding figures are 1.8 and 1.8, with Over 2.5 goals landing 8/10 times. Como have collected 14 points from seven Serie A matches. Situation. Como are playing their third match in eight days after a Champions League match, while Sassuolo have had seven rest days. Five absences are listed for each side; Como are without Kean, Diao and Chalobah among others, but Nico Paz, Baturina and Douvikas are in the predicted starting line-up. Estimate. Como: 64.7% · Draw: 20.3% · Sassuolo: 15.0% Why we're backing it. Como are clear favourites thanks to their strong home position and early-season results, but the rest differential and absences are significant counterweights. Therefore, the estimate does not deviate from the market's fair probability.

Odds 1.52 · market 64.7% · our estimate 65% · edge -1.7%

Lazio – Parma: Lazio to win @ 1.52

Statistics. Lazio have collected 19 points from seven Serie A matches with a 6–1–0 record, while Parma have four points with a 1–1–5 record. In the given 10-match sample, Lazio's goal averages are 1.9–0.9 and Parma's are 0.6–1.7. Situation. Gudmundsson, Rovella, Marusic and Furlanetto are absent for Lazio, but the predicted starting line-up remains competitive. Nicolussi Caviglia, Almqvist, Elphege and Valenti are absent for Parma, and the fixture schedule gives neither side a clear advantage. Estimate. Lazio: 64.7% · Draw: 22.2% · Parma: 13.1% Why we're backing it. Lazio are clearly the most likely winners because of their strong start to the season and Parma's weak attacking output. However, the sources do not provide sufficient grounds to raise the estimate above the market's fair 64.7%.

Odds 1.52 · market 64.7% · our estimate 65% · edge -1.7%

West Ham United – Southampton: West Ham United to win @ 1.71

Statistics. West Ham have scored 2.9 and conceded 1.1 goals per match in their last 10 matches; Southampton's corresponding figures are 1.8 and 1.1. The teams have won six of their first 11 Championship matches, but West Ham are second in the league and Southampton are in a play-off place; Southampton have three consecutive clean sheets. Situation. Both sides have seven days' rest. Keiber Lamadrid is absent for West Ham, while Mads Roerslev is out for Southampton and Flynn Downes and Cyle Larin, who has scored eight goals, are doubtful. Estimate. West Ham United 56.8% · Draw 22.6% · Southampton 20.7% Why we're backing it. West Ham are justified likely favourites at home, but Southampton's strong start to the season and three consecutive clean sheets prevent us from raising the estimate above the market's fair 56.8%.

Odds 1.71 · market 56.8% · our estimate 57% · edge -3.0%

Gil Vicente – FC Porto: FC Porto to win @ 1.45

Statistics. FC Porto have won all eight of their league matches, and the defensive side of the team's league goal record is four goals conceded. In the given 10-match sample, Porto have scored 2.1 and conceded 1.1 goals per match, while Gil Vicente's figures are 1.2 and 1.0. Situation. Weverson, Arthur Tchaptchet, Mohamed Bamba and Sergio Bermejo are absent for Gil Vicente, but only Weverson has played this league season; Vasco Sousa and William Gomes are out for Porto. Porto played in the Champions League four days earlier, while Gil Vicente had five rest days. Estimate. Gil Vicente: 13.4% · Draw: 21.6% · FC Porto: 64.9% Why we're backing it. FC Porto's eight wins from eight league matches make them justified favourites, but taking into account Gil Vicente's compact defence and Porto's European commitments, we do not deviate from the market's fair estimate.

Odds 1.45 · market 64.9% · our estimate 65% · edge -5.8%

Over/Under and handicap

In Over/Under bets, you bet on the match's total number of goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the rationale is always specified: fixture schedule, goalkeepers, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, overtime and the shootout are included; in football, only regulation time counts. In handicap bets, you bet on the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by at least five.

Rayo Vallecano – Elche CF: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.91

Statistics. In Rayo's nine-match sample, the average total goals figure is 3.5 and Over 2.5 goals landed 6/9 times. In Elche's ten-match sample, the average is 3.2 goals and the line was exceeded 6/10 times. Situation. Rayo are without A. Batalla, P. Ciss and Luiz Felipe, while R. Nteka and A. Ratiu are also doubtful; shortages in goal and defence increase the risk of conceding goals. M. Aguado is absent for Elche, and neither side has the burden of a consecutive matchday. Estimate. Over: 56% · Under: 44% Why we're backing it. Both samples have six overs, and Rayo have conceded 2.2 goals per match. The absences of Batalla, Luiz Felipe and Ciss for the home side tilt the estimate towards the over. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans over the market because goal totals have been high in both teams' match samples and Rayo's goalkeeper and defensive absences increase the risk of conceding goals.

Odds 1.91 · market 52.0% · our estimate 56% · edge +7.0%

Lazio – Parma: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.97

Statistics. Lazio have scored 1.9 and conceded 0.9 goals per match in their last 10 matches; Over 2.5 goals landed 5/10 times. Parma have managed 0.6 goals scored per match and 4/10 of their matches went over the line. No xG figures are available. Situation. The listed absences for both sides have been checked: Lazio are without Gudmundsson and Rovella among others, while Parma are without Almqvist and Nicolussi Caviglia. The teams have five or six days' rest for the match, with no burden from a consecutive matchday; kick-off has been confirmed for Saturday 24.10.2026 at 21.45 (Helsinki time). Estimate. Over: 47% · Under: 53% Why we're backing it. Parma's limited goalscoring and Lazio's average of fewer than one goal conceded shift the estimate moderately towards the under option. Deviation from the market: The estimate leans under the market because Parma's attacking output has been limited to 0.6 goals per match and Lazio have conceded only 0.9 goals per match in the ten-match sample.

Odds 1.97 · market 50.4% · our estimate 53% · edge +4.4%

Specials

In specials, you bet on an individual player's statistic: in the NHL, points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves; in Liiga, points, goals, assists or shots; in the NBA, points, rebounds, assists or three-pointers; and in football, shots and shots on target. Ice hockey and basketball bets are published with a confirmed line-up; a football bet may be published before the line-up is released, and is voided according to the bookmaker's rule if the player does not start. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the rationale is always specified.

Coventry City – Fulham: Josh King Over 0.5 shots on target @ 1.67

Statistics. King has exceeded the 0.5 shots on target line in 5/8 recent matches (63%), averaging 1.1. His playing time has fallen to an average of 66:24 minutes over the last five matches, compared with 75:15 across the full sample. Situation. King has started the last five matches; the starting line-up has not yet been published, and the service will check it before kick-off. Coventry allow midfielders 3.6 shots on target per match over the last five, and defenders Aurele Amenda and Luke Woolfenden are absent. Estimate. Over: 66% · Under: 34% Why we're backing it. The number Coventry allow to midfielders and two defensive absences lift the over estimate slightly above King's empirical hit rate of 63%. Deviation from the market: The estimate is slightly higher than the empirical 63% because Coventry's recent volume of shots allowed to midfielders and the absences of Amenda and Woolfenden favour the over.

Odds 1.67 · market 59.9% · our estimate 66% · edge +10.2%

Arsenal – Everton: Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Over 1.5 shots @ 1.93

Statistics. Dewsbury-Hall has exceeded the 1.5 shots line in 5/9 recent matches. His shots average is 1.7 and median 2.0; his average playing time is 88:47 and 89:48 over the last five. Situation. Dewsbury-Hall has started the last five matches and played in the centre of attacking midfield in Everton's previous league starting line-up. Arsenal allow 8.8 shots per match and 4.0 to midfielders, but Saliba's absence and Arsenal's three-day recovery slightly support Everton's attacking player; the starting line-up will be checked before the match. Estimate. Over: 56% · Under: 44% Why we're backing it. The empirical hit probability and near-full minutes keep the over estimate at 56%. Arsenal's strong shot defence prevents us from raising the estimate any higher. Deviation from the market: Arsenal's low volume of shots allowed weighs on the over estimate, but Saliba's absence and Arsenal's shorter recovery balance the effect, so the estimate remains at the empirical 56%.

Odds 1.93 · market 51.8% · our estimate 56% · edge +8.1%

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