Sunday 25 Oct 2026 · 31 picks · 21/31 hit · return 114.5%

Hits

21/31

of all published

Return

114.5%

flat-stake singles

Likely

13/15

return 133.9%

Specials

2/3

return 120.3%

Value picks

1/2

return 107.5%

Totals & spreads

5/11

return 87.5%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (your time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
HJK Helsinki – KuPS KuopioVeikkausliigaFootballHJK Helsinki to winMatch winner (1X2) · CoolbetOdds 1.74 · market 55.2% · our estimate 59% · edge +1.8%i1.74↑ 1.94CLV −5.9 ppmorningLoss2–2 (tasapeli).

HJK have a clear rest advantage and face KuPS immediately after their away trip to Bosnia. KuPS are without suspended centre-back Brahima Magassa, while HJK have no new absences.

Athletic Bilbao – GetafeLa LigaFootballAthletic Bilbao to winMatch winner (1X2) · Coolbetnote: Z. Romero, Aymeric Laporte, Oihan Sancet, Gorka Guruzeta not in the squadOdds 1.60 · market 60.8% · our estimate 61% · edge -2.1%i1.60↓ 1.57CLV +1.2 ppmorningWin4–0 (Athletic Club voitti)

Athletic have home advantage against Getafe, who are playing their third match in seven days and must reshape their defence. Athletic's own key absences limit their status as favourites.

Sparta Rotterdam – AjaxEredivisieFootballAjax to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: S. Mito, S. Adingra, Caio Henrique, K. Dolberg, O. Edvardsen, A. Gaaei, S. Berghuis not in the squadOdds 1.48 · market 65.0% · our estimate 65% · edge -3.8%i1.48↑ 1.53CLV −2.2 ppmorningWin1–2 (Ajax voitti)

Ajax are clearly the more efficient team in the results sample, but three days' recovery and several absences prevent us from raising the estimate above the market's 65%.

Lecce – JuventusSerie AFootballJuventus to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.54 · market 63.8% · our estimate 64% · edge -1.7%i1.54→ 1.54CLV 0.0 ppmorningWin0–2 (Juventus voitti)

Juventus are clear favourites, but their lengthy list of absences among key players and shorter recovery time than Lecce limit confidence. The estimate is kept at the market's fair distribution.

Real Sociedad – LevanteLa LigaFootballReal Sociedad to winMatch winner (1X2) · CoolbetOdds 1.64 · market 59.1% · our estimate 60% · edge -1.6%i1.64↓ 1.56CLV +3.1 ppmorningWin2–1 (Real Sociedad voitti)

Real Sociedad are fifth in the league and host Levante, who are without key centre-back Dela and midfielder Bardeli. Real's Thursday European match nevertheless limits the estimate.

Palermo – CarrareseSerie BFootballPalermo to winMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: A. Palumbo not in the squadOdds 1.51 · market 64.0% · our estimate 64% · edge -3.5%i1.51→ 1.51CLV 0.0 ppafternoonWin2–1 (Palermo voitti)

Palermo have been clearly more efficient, but the latest team news gives no reason to raise the estimate above the market's fair 64.0%.

Mjällby AIF – Hammarby IFAllsvenskanFootballHammarby IF to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (SE)Odds 1.48 · market 65.2% · our estimate 69% · edge +2.1%i1.48↓ 1.41CLV +3.4 ppafternoonWin0–2 (Hammarby FF voitti)

Hammarby have been clearly more efficient, and Mjällby's away match on Thursday leaves the home side with only three rest days. The estimate raises the away win slightly above the market anchor.

Marseille – Le HavreLigue 1FootballMarseille to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: D. Cornelius not in the squadOdds 1.53 · market 64.4% · our estimate 64% · edge -1.6%i1.53↓ 1.47CLV +2.7 ppafternoonWin4–3 (Marseille voitti)

Marseille are clear favourites at home against bottom-of-the-league Le Havre, but three days of recovery from the European match prevents a win probability higher than the market estimate.

Real Sociedad – LevanteLa LigaFootballReal Sociedad to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: Luken Beitia, E. Bardeli not in the squadOdds 1.62 · market 60.7% · our estimate 61% · edge -1.7%i1.62↓ 1.56CLV +2.4 ppafternoonWin2–1 (Real Sociedad voitti)

Real Sociedad are clear favourites at home, but the short recovery after the European match and Levante's decent form prevent the estimate from being raised above the market's 60.7%.

River Plate – Racing ClubArgentiinan PrimeraFootballRiver Plate to winMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: M. Acuña, F. Vera, M. Miljevic, A. Espino not in the squadOdds 1.52 · market 63.5% · our estimate 64% · edge -3.5%i1.52↓ 1.45CLV +3.2 ppafternoonWin1–0 (River Plate voitti)

River's 10-match goal figures and Racing's weak league situation support the home favourites, but River's three significant absences prevent an estimate higher than the market's.

Barcelona – Real MadridLa LigaFootballBarcelona to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (SE)note: T. Courtois not in the squadOdds 1.64 · market 59.1% · our estimate 62% · edge +0.9%i1.64↓ 1.61CLV +1.1 ppnightLoss1–2 (Real Madrid voitti)

Barcelona have won all 9 of their league matches. Real are without Vinícius and Rodrygo as well as Courtois at the last minute, and the Madrid side have one day less recovery.

Arizona Cardinals – Denver BroncosNFLAmerican footballDenver Broncos to winMatch winner · PinnacleOdds 1.48 · market 65.9% · our estimate 66% · edge -2.5%i1.48→ 1.48CLV 0.0 ppnightWinDenver Broncos voitti 30–16.

Denver's defensive figures and 4–2 record make them clear favourites, but the absences of key defenders prevent the estimate from being raised above the market's 65.9%.

Las Vegas Raiders – Los Angeles RamsNFLAmerican footballLos Angeles Rams to winMatch winner · PinnacleOdds 1.60 · market 61.1% · our estimate 61% · edge -2.2%i1.60→ 1.60CLV 0.0 ppnightWinLos Angeles Rams voitti 35–21.

The Rams are clear favourites according to the market and their yardage production has been strong. However, significant wide receiver absences prevent the estimate from being raised above the market anchor.

Detroit Lions – Green Bay PackersNFLAmerican footballDetroit Lions to winMatch winner · Unibet (NL)Odds 1.54 · market 63.1% · our estimate 63% · edge -2.8%i1.54↓ 1.52CLV +0.9 ppnightWinDetroit Lions voitti 20–17.

Detroit's offence has been clearly more effective and the team are coming off a bye week. However, the market's 63.1% estimate is already justified, so I am not making an unsourced increase.

Dallas Stars – New York IslandersNHLIce hockeyDallas Stars to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.55 · market 63.0% · our estimate 63% · edge -2.4%i1.55↑ 1.56CLV −0.4 ppnightWinDallas Stars voitti 6–3 varsinaisella peliajalla.

Dallas are on a four-game winning streak and Oettinger is projected to start, but Sorokin and the Islanders' strong defence balance the matchup. The estimate remains at the market's 63%.

Value picksOur estimate beats the market
TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer LeverkusenBundesliigaFootballBayer Leverkusen to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (SE)note: Nathan De Cat not in the squadBlind estimate 52% · market 44.9% · edge +12.8%i2.17↓ 2.10CLV +1.5 ppmorningLoss3–0 (1899 Hoffenheim voitti)

Why we think the market is wrong: Leverkusen's early season (4–1–1, 16–9) and 10-match goal profile of 2.8–0.9 are stronger than Hoffenheim's.

Leverkusen's early season (4–1–1, 16–9) and 10-match goal profile of 2.8–0.9 are stronger than Hoffenheim's. The even fixture schedule does not negate the away side's quality advantage.

Liverpool – Brighton and Hove AlbionValioliigaFootballLiverpool to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: D. Szoboszlai, K. Mitoma, Y. Minteh, M. Wieffer, Víctor Muñoz, P. Struijk not in the squadBlind estimate 53% · market 45.8% · edge +14.0%i2.15↓ 2.06CLV +2.0 ppafternoonWin2–0 (Liverpool voitti)

Why we think the market is wrong: Anfield's home advantage and Brighton's two days less recovery make Liverpool favourites, although Brighton's strong form and Liverpool's own absences keep the estimate moderate.

Anfield's home advantage and Brighton's two days less recovery make Liverpool favourites, although Brighton's strong form and Liverpool's own absences keep the estimate moderate.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, goal totals are settled including overtime and the shootout; the shootout counts as one goal. In football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
AS Monaco – LilleLigue 1FootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: A. Ueda, Tiago Santos not in the squadOdds 2.08 · market 47.5% · our estimate 53% · edge +10.2%i2.08↑ 2.17CLV −2.0 ppmorningWin1–1 → 2 maalia, raja 2,5

Lille have conceded only five goals in seven Ligue 1 matches, and the absences of Ueda and Igamane weaken the attack. Their head-to-head matches against Monaco have been low-scoring.

Angers – LorientLigue 1FootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: Bane Diatta, B. Fadiga not in the squadOdds 2.08 · market 47.3% · our estimate 51% · edge +6.1%i2.08↓ 2.04CLV +0.9 ppmorningLoss0–0 → 0 maalia, raja 2,5

Angers's matches have featured high scoring and a high xG environment. Lorient's defensive form and Katseris's absence temper the estimate, but the Over has a narrow edge.

SC Freiburg – Bayern MunichBundesliigaFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetnote: Kim Min-Jae, Y. Engelhardt not in the squadOdds 1.79 · market 55.0% · our estimate 59% · edge +5.6%i1.79↑ 1.90CLV −3.2 ppmorningWin1–3 → 4 maalia, raja 3,5

6 of Freiburg's last 10 matches and 8 of Bayern's went Over 3.5 goals. Bayern's significant attacking absences limit the increase, but the absences of Neuer and Kim Min-jae also increase the risk of conceding.

Barcelona – Real MadridLa LigaFootballOver 4.5 goalsOver/Under 4.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.13 · market 46.2% · our estimate 49% · edge +4.4%i2.13↑ 2.23CLV −2.1 ppmorningLoss1–2 → 3 maalia, raja 4,5

Barcelona have scored 4.3 goals per match and gone Over 4.5 goals in 8/10 recent matches. Defensive absences support the Over estimate, but attacking absences temper the increase.

Genoa – VeneziaSerie AFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.06 · market 48.9% · our estimate 52% · edge +7.1%i2.06↓ 1.93CLV +3.3 ppafternoonLoss1–0 → 1 maalia, raja 2,5

Venezia's average total goals figure over 10 matches is 3.4 and the team have conceded 16 goals in seven Serie A matches. Genoa have also conceded 13 goals in their league matches.

Manchester United – BournemouthValioliigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: A. Scott not in the squadOdds 1.86 · market 53.0% · our estimate 56% · edge +4.2%i1.86→ 1.86CLV 0.0 ppafternoonWin0–3 → 3 maalia, raja 2,5

Over 2.5 occurred in 7/10 of Bournemouth's 10-match sample, and United are without several defensive players. Both teams' packed match schedules increase the risk of defensive errors.

Estoril – Moreirense FCPrimeira LigaFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: Y. Begraoui, Fabrício Garcia, A. Duville-Parsemain not in the squadOdds 1.92 · market 51.2% · our estimate 57% · edge +9.4%i1.92↓ 1.88CLV +1.1 ppafternoonLoss1–3 → 4 maalia, raja 2,5

Estoril's average total goals figure over 10 matches is only 2.0 and Over 2.5 occurred in 3/10. The total expectation based on the teams' attacking and goals-conceded figures remains around 2.35 goals.

Lillestrom – SK BrannEliteserienFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Coolbetnote: C. Jebara not in the squadOdds 1.91 · market 52.0% · our estimate 55% · edge +5.1%i1.91→ 1.91CLV 0.0 ppafternoonLoss3–2 → 5 maalia, raja 3,5

The four-goal threshold is high: in the last 10 matches, at least four goals were seen 3 times in Lillestrom's matches and 2 times in Brann's. The estimate leans marginally towards Under.

Dallas Stars – New York IslandersNHLIce hockeyUnder 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · 1xBetOdds 1.88 · market 51.8% · our estimate 56% · edge +5.3%i1.88↓ 1.81CLV +2.1 ppnightLoss6–3 → 9 maalia, raja 5,5

Dallas have conceded 1.7 and the Islanders 2.3 goals per game; in addition, projected starters Oettinger (.939) and Sorokin (.934) have started the season strongly.

Nashville Predators – Colorado AvalancheNHLIce hockeyOver 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · 888Odds 1.91 · market 51.5% · our estimate 55% · edge +5.1%i1.91↑ 1.93CLV −0.5 ppnightWin6–2 → 8 maalia, raja 6,5

Colorado have scored 3.9 goals per game, and Nashville are playing on consecutive days behind projected backup Annunen (.806). Wedgewood's solid .912 tempers the estimate.

Vancouver Canucks – Minnesota WildNHLIce hockeyUnder 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · 888Odds 1.99 · market 49.0% · our estimate 54% · edge +7.5%i1.99↓ 1.94CLV +1.3 ppnightWin2–4 → 6 maalia, raja 6,5

Vancouver have scored only 2.2 goals per game over the last ten, Minnesota have conceded 2.6, and Meriläinen, projected for Vancouver, has a 91.8% save percentage.

SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA; and shots and shots on target in football. Hockey and basketball picks are published with a confirmed line-up; a football pick may be published before the line-up is announced and is voided under the bookmaker's rule if the player does not start. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
Iván RomeroReal Sociedad – Levante · La LigaFootballIván Romero Over 0.5 shots on targetShots on target Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.66 · market 60.2% · our estimate 67% · edge +11.2%i1.66↑ 1.68CLV −0.7 ppmorningWin1 laukausta maalia kohti, raja 0,5 · 62 min

Last 9: 6/9 over 0.5 · 70 min

Romero has had at least one shot on target in 6/9 recent matches, and Real Sociedad have allowed forwards 2.7 shots on target per match.

Lane HutsonWinnipeg Jets – Montréal Canadiens · NHLIce hockeyLane Hutson over 1.5 shotsShots on goal Over/Under 1.5 · PinnacleOdds 1.82 · market 52.4% · our estimate 57% · edge +3.7%i1.82↓ 1.80CLV +0.6 ppnightLoss1 laukausta, raja 1,5 · L. Hutson laukaukset: 1 (boxscore 2026020182)

Last 20: 9/20 over 1.5 · shots/60 3.0 · TOI 25:49

Hutson exceeded the line in 8/10 of his last matches, and his projected role on the first pairing and PP1 supports volume. Winnipeg allow 30.0 shots per game.

Brock BoeserVancouver Canucks – Minnesota Wild · NHLIce hockeyBrock Boeser over 0.5 pointsPoints Over/Under 0.5 · CoolbetOdds 1.95 · market 50.3% · our estimate 55% · edge +7.2%i1.95↓ 1.77CLV +5.2 ppnightWinBrock Boeser teki maalin ottelussa

Last 20: 11/20 over 0.5 · TOI 19:13

Boeser is projected on Pettersson's first line and PP1. Minnesota are playing on consecutive days, and confirmed starter Calvin Pickard has played only one poor match this season.