Thursday 22 Oct 2026 · 31 picks · 14/29 hit · return 85.4%

Hits

14/29

of all published · 2 voided, stakes returned

Return

85.4%

flat-stake singles

Totals & spreads

7/13

return 103.0%

Likely

6/12

return 78.1%

Specials

1/4

return 50.0%

MatchSportPickOddsKick-off (your time)StatusResult
LikelyOdds 1.30–1.75 · hit more often than value picks, but at short odds one loss wipes out several wins. Edge here is usually near zero or negative – no value edge, nothing is certain.
FC Ararat-Armenia – AZ AlkmaarEurooppa-liigaFootballAZ Alkmaar to winMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (SE)note: P. Ayongo not in the squadOdds 1.49 · market 65.1% · our estimate 65% · edge -3.1%i1.49↓ 1.40CLV +4.3 ppmorningWin0–4 (AZ Alkmaar won)

AZ have a clear quality advantage, but their absences and away trip prevent an increase on the market estimate. The probability is kept at the market's fair 65.1%.

Pafos FC – Riga FCKonferenssiliigaFootballPafos FC to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.62 · market 59.6% · our estimate 60% · edge -3.5%i1.62↑ 1.80CLV −6.2 ppmorningLoss1–1 (Draw)

Pafos are home favourites, but recent results and both teams' similar match workload provide no source-based reason to raise the estimate above the market's 59.6%.

Maccabi Tel Aviv – Real MadridEuroLeagueBasketballReal Madrid to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner · LiveScore BetOdds 1.54 · market 61.4% · our estimate 61% · edge -5.4%i1.54↓ 1.51CLV +1.3 ppmorningWin99–113 (Real Madrid won)

Real have been clearly more effective in attack and regain two players who rested at the weekend. However, the market's 61.4% estimate is already justified, so we do not raise our estimate.

AGF Aarhus – KF EgnatiaKonferenssiliigaFootballAGF Aarhus to winEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · Unibet (NL)note: G. Links, Mouhammade Camara not in the squadOdds 1.53 · market 61.9% · our estimate 62% · edge -5.3%i1.53↓ 1.46CLV +3.1 ppmorningLoss1–1 (Draw)

AGF are home favourites, but Egnatia's recent results are strong and AGF are missing several players. The estimate remains exactly within the market's fair distribution.

FC Kairat – Panathinaikos FCKonferenssiliigaFootballPanathinaikos FC to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: V. Kristiansen, Adriano Jagušić, A. Ounahi, S. Ingason not in the squadOdds 1.68 · market 57.4% · our estimate 57% · edge -3.5%i1.68↓ 1.59CLV +3.4 ppafternoonWin1–5 (Panathinaikos won)

Panathinaikos have been clearly stronger in the 10-match sample, but the away team have several absences. Without an additional unpriced edge, our estimate is kept in the market's fair distribution.

Dinamo Zagreb – NEC NijmegenEurooppa-liigaFootballDinamo Zagreb to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.51 · market 64.2% · our estimate 64% · edge -3.1%i1.51↑ 1.54CLV −1.3 ppafternoonLoss2–4 (NEC Nijmegen won)

Dinamo are clear favourites at home due to their better recent results and NEC's absences in defence and among creative players. However, our estimate remains at the market's fair 64.2%.

FC Nordsjaelland – PFC CSKA SofiaKonferenssiliigaFootballFC Nordsjaelland to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: M. Brahimi, J. Gbamin, J. Zwarts not in the squadOdds 1.45 · market 66.6% · our estimate 67% · edge -3.4%i1.45↓ 1.43CLV +1.0 ppafternoonLoss2–2 (Draw)

Home advantage and CSKA's greater number of absences support FC Nordsjaelland, but the visitors' goal return in recent matches is stronger. Our estimate therefore remains at the market's fair 66.6%.

Olympiakos Piraeus – Sparta PragueEurooppa-liigaFootballOlympiakos Piraeus to winMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.52 · market 63.7% · our estimate 64% · edge -3.2%i1.52↓ 1.48CLV +1.8 ppnightWin1–0 (Olympiakos Piraeus won)

Olympiakos are home favourites and have defended strongly in recent games, but El Kaabi's absence and both teams' confirmed line-ups provide no reason to raise the estimate above the market's 63.7%.

NK Celje – SalzburgEurooppa-liigaFootballSalzburg to winMatch winner (1X2) · CoralOdds 1.57 · market 60.7% · our estimate 61% · edge -4.7%i1.57↑ 1.62CLV −2.0 ppnightLoss2–2 (Draw)

Salzburg's goal difference in recent matches and their confirmed attack-minded starting line-up support their status as favourites, but the market's fair estimate of 60.7% is already accurate.

Dallas Stars – Winnipeg JetsNHLIce hockeyDallas Stars to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.52 · market 64.1% · our estimate 64% · edge -2.4%i1.52↓ 1.51CLV +0.4 ppnightWin3–2 OT (Dallas won in overtime)

Oettinger has been confirmed in goal for Dallas and his early-season figures are clearly better than Skinner's. The goaltending edge supports their status as favourites, but the estimate remains at the market's fair 64.2%.

Calgary Flames – Minnesota WildNHLIce hockeyMinnesota Wild to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · William HillOdds 1.50 · market 63.4% · our estimate 63% · edge -4.9%i1.50→ 1.50CLV 0.0 ppnightLoss2–1 (Calgary won in regulation time)

Minnesota have started 6–2–2 and Calgary 2–6–0, but Minnesota's goaltender is still only projected and Calgary have two more rest days. We keep the market estimate unchanged.

Vancouver Canucks – Detroit Red WingsNHLIce hockeyDetroit Red Wings to winMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · William HillOdds 1.62 · market 58.7% · our estimate 59% · edge -4.9%i1.62↓ 1.59CLV +1.2 ppnightWin2–5 (Detroit won in regulation time)

Vancouver have lost eight in a row, but the goaltending information is conflicting and provides no source-based reason to raise Detroit above the market's 58.7%.

Totals & spreadsOver/under picks call the match's total goals or points, not the winner. Odds are 1.70–2.20 and the reason is always named: pace, goaltending, absences or conditions. In ice hockey, goal totals are settled including overtime and the shootout; the shootout counts as one goal. In football only regulation time. Spread picks call the winning margin: Lakers −4.5 wins if the Lakers win by five or more.
FK Jablonec – Brighton and Hove AlbionKonferenssiliigaFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetnote: K. Milla, L. Jawo not in the squadOdds 2.13 · market 45.4% · our estimate 50% · edge +6.5%i2.13↓ 2.12CLV +0.2 ppmorningLoss0–0 → 0 goals, line 3.5

Brighton have scored 3.4 goals per match and 8 of their 10 matches have gone Over 2.5 goals. Jablonec's two most recent matches ended 3–2, so Over 3.5 is more likely than the market suggests.

Inter Club d'Escaldes – Universitatea CraiovaKonferenssiliigaFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · PinnacleOdds 1.96 · market 49.6% · our estimate 53% · edge +3.9%i1.96↑ 2.04CLV −2.0 ppmorningLoss1–3 → 4 goals, line 2.5

Craiova have conceded only 0.4 goals per match in a 10-match sample, and 6/10 of their matches have stayed Under 2.5 goals. Inter's recent finishing in European matches has been subdued.

SK Sturm Graz – MarseilleEurooppa-liigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · 1xBetnote: D. Cornelius not in the squadOdds 1.73 · market 56.2% · our estimate 59% · edge +2.1%i1.73↓ 1.57CLV +5.9 ppmorningLoss1–0 → 1 goal, line 2.5

Both teams' 10-match total-goal average is 3.3 and Over 2.5 has landed 13/20 times overall. Sturm's attacking absences are offset by Marseille's defensive and midfield concerns.

Bournemouth – AC MilanEurooppa-liigaFootballOver 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · LeoVegas (SE)note: M. Gabbia, F. Terracciano, S. Chukwueze, A. Saelemaekers, E. Kroupi, A. Scott not in the squadOdds 1.75 · market 56.3% · our estimate 60% · edge +5.0%i1.75→ 1.75CLV 0.0 ppmorningWin3–0 → 3 goals, line 2.5

Both teams' 10-match total-goal averages are above 3.0, and Over 2.5 has landed in 13/20 matches overall. Milan are also missing defensive players.

OFI Crete – Bayer LeverkusenEurooppa-liigaFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.97 · market 49.4% · our estimate 56% · edge +10.3%i1.97↓ 1.95CLV +0.5 ppafternoonWin0–2 → 2 goals, line 3.5

Only 2 of OFI's last 10 matches and 6 of Leverkusen's went over 3.5 goals. OFI's 2.8-goal match average and the lengthy absence lists tilt our estimate towards the Under market.

FC Iberia 1999 – Mjällby AIFKonferenssiliigaFootballUnder 2.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Coolbetnote: Villum Dalsgaard, T. Stavitski not in the squadOdds 1.94 · market 50.0% · our estimate 56% · edge +8.6%i1.94↓ 1.83CLV +3.1 ppafternoonWin1–1 → 2 goals, line 2.5

Only 7 of the teams' last 20 matches went over 2.5 goals. Dalsgaard and Stavitski are listed as unavailable from Mjällby's attack, so our estimate leans towards the Under.

Panathinaikos – Saski BaskoniaEuroLeagueBasketballPanathinaikos −15.5 pointsHandicap −15.5 · William HillOdds 1.91 · market 50.8% · our estimate 55% · edge +5.1%i1.91→ 1.91CLV 0.0 ppafternoonLoss85–79 → margin +6, line −15.5

Panathinaikos's points averages over six EuroLeague matches are 88.0–73.0, while Baskonia's are 84.0–94.0. Baskonia's backcourt is weakened by the absences of Chris Duarte and Kobi Simmons.

Panathinaikos – Saski BaskoniaEuroLeagueBasketballUnder 172.5 pointsOver/Under 172.5 points · 1xBetOdds 1.94 · market 50.0% · our estimate 54% · edge +4.8%i1.94↑ 1.96CLV −0.5 ppafternoonWin85–79 → 164 points, line 172.5

The combined total-points averages from the teams' six EuroLeague matches is 169.5. Baskonia's Duarte and Simmons are unavailable, and the new coach emphasises improving the defence.

TSG Hoffenheim – LyonEurooppa-liigaFootballUnder 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.77 · market 55.2% · our estimate 59% · edge +4.4%i1.77→ 1.77CLV 0.0 ppnightWin3–0 → 3 goals, line 3.5

Lyon's confirmed attack is heavily rotated and Openda and Šulc are absent from the starting line-up. Only 3/10 Lyon matches have gone Over 3.5 goals.

Ajax – Atalanta BCKonferenssiliigaFootballOver 3.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 2.12 · market 46.3% · our estimate 49% · edge +3.9%i2.12↑ 2.15CLV −0.7 ppnightLoss2–0 → 2 goals, line 3.5

Ajax's 10-match goal-expectation-indicating outcome is 3.3–1.7 per game, and the confirmed starting line-ups feature quality in attack for both sides as well as vulnerability in the defensive line.

Ottawa Senators – San Jose SharksNHLIce hockeyOver 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 2.02 · market 48.6% · our estimate 52% · edge +5.0%i2.02→ 2.02CLV 0.0 ppnightWin2–6 → 8 goals, line 6.5

Both starters have save percentages below 87% early in the season, and Ottawa are playing the second game of a back-to-back. This lifts the Over estimate marginally above the market.

Pittsburgh Penguins – Florida PanthersNHLIce hockeyOver 6.5 goalsOver/Under 6.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 1.83 · market 53.1% · our estimate 56% · edge +2.5%i1.83↑ 1.85CLV −0.6 ppnightLoss4–0 → 4 goals, line 6.5

Pittsburgh's games have produced 7.1 goals per game, Silovs's SV% is .866 and Florida are playing without a rest day. Florida's goaltender Cooper Black is still only projected.

New York Islanders – Los Angeles KingsNHLIce hockeyUnder 5.5 goalsOver/Under 5.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · 888Odds 2.00 · market 50.5% · our estimate 52% · edge +4.0%i2.00↓ 1.88CLV +3.2 ppnightWin2–2 and 0–1 → 5 goals, line 5.5

The Islanders have conceded only 2.2 goals per game and projected starter Sorokin has a 93.4% save percentage. LA's 2.4-goal attack and attacking absences for both sides marginally support the Under line.

SpecialsSpecials call an individual player's statistic: points, goals, assists, shots, power-play points or saves in the NHL; points, goals, assists or shots in Liiga; points, rebounds, assists or threes in the NBA; and shots and shots on target in football. Hockey and basketball picks are published with a confirmed line-up; a football pick may be published before the line-up is announced and is voided under the bookmaker's rule if the player does not start. Odds are 1.60–2.20 and the reason is always named.
Yéremy PinoBesiktas JK – Crystal Palace · Eurooppa-liigaFootballYéremy Pino Over 0.5 shots on targetShots on target Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 2.00 · market 50.0% · our estimate 56% · edge +12.0%i2.00↓ 1.87CLV +3.5 ppmorningWin1 shot on target, line 0.5 · 72 min

Last 9: 5/9 over 0.5 · 73 min

Pino has recorded at least one shot on target in 5/9 matches and started the last five. Beşiktaş have allowed opponents 3.8 shots on target per match.

Ibrahim MazaOFI Crete – Bayer Leverkusen · Eurooppa-liigaFootballIbrahim Maza Over 2.5 shotsShots Over/Under 2.5 · UnibetOdds 1.77 · market 56.5% · our estimate 63% · edge +11.5%i1.77afternoonVoidnot in the starting line-up (bet void, stake returned) – on the bench

Last 8: 5/8 over 2.5 · 85 min

Maza has cleared the line in 5/8 matches and started the last five. OFI have allowed midfielders 7.0 shots/match over the last eight.

M. IshakLech Poznań – Sunderland · Eurooppa-liigaFootballM. Ishak Over 2.5 shotsShots Over/Under 2.5 · UnibetOdds 2.00 · market 50.0% · our estimate 53% · edge +6.0%i2.00↓ 1.85CLV +4.1 ppafternoonLoss2 shots, line 2.5 · 87 min

Last 8: 4/8 over 2.5 · 57 min

Ishak's playing time in recent matches has risen by 16%, and Sunderland have allowed forwards 4.0 shots/match over the last five. Our estimate is therefore slightly higher than the 50% sample.

R. MofokengUnion Saint-Gilloise – Hapoel Be'er Sheva · Eurooppa-liigaFootballR. Mofokeng Over 0.5 shots on targetShots on target Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.65 · market 60.6% · our estimate 63% · edge +4.0%i1.65↓ 1.50CLV +6.1 ppafternoonLoss0 shots on target, line 0.5 · 79 min

Last 8: 5/8 over 0.5 · 55 min

Mofokeng has cleared the line in 5/8 matches and played more in recent games than before. However, Hapoel's recent defensive figures temper the estimate, so I keep the empirical 63% unchanged.

Václav ČernýBesiktas JK – Crystal Palace · Eurooppa-liigaFootballVáclav Černý Over 0.5 shots on targetShots on target Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.67 · market 59.9% · our estimate 63% · edge +5.2%i1.67afternoonVoidnot in the starting line-up (bet void, stake returned) – on the bench

Last 8: 5/8 over 0.5 · 66 min

Černý cleared the line in 5/8 matches and 4/5 of the latest matches. Palace's recent SOT allowance to midfielders has fallen, but the overall picture gives no sufficient reason to depart from the empirical 63% estimate.

Simon HolmstromNew York Islanders – Los Angeles Kings · NHLIce hockeySimon Holmstrom Under 1.5 shotsShots on goal Over/Under 1.5 · PinnacleOdds 1.71 · market 54.6% · our estimate 67% · edge +14.6%i1.71↓ 1.70CLV +0.3 ppnightLoss3 shots, line 1.5 · S. Holmstrom shots: 3 (boxscore 2026020159)

Last 20: 13/20 under 1.5 · shots/60 4.8 · TOI 16:51

Holmstrom has gone Under 1.5 shots in 7/10 recent games. His current first-line and PP1 role provides no source-based reason to deviate from the empirical 67% Under estimate.