Week 41 · 5–11 Oct 2026
Picks
150
Settled
150/150
Hit rate
58.7%
88/150
Return (level stakes)
103.2%
Avg CLV
+0.9 pp
n = 131
Closing line beaten
63.4%
Voided
0
Summary
In week 41 BetSorceress published 150 picks, of which 88 won (58.7% of settled). At level stakes the return was 103.2%. The closing line was beaten on 63.4% of picks, by +0.9 percentage points on average. The best lane was Value picks (206.3%), the weakest Specials (50.3%).
Comparison
| Metric | This week | Previous week | Change | Since 1 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picks | 150 | 65 | +85 | 199 |
| Hit rate | 58.7% | 65.1% | −6.4 pp | 58.9% |
| Return (level stakes) | 103.2% | 107.9% | −4.7 pp | 102.2% |
| Avg CLV | +0.9 pp | +0.8 pp | +0.1 pp | +1.0 pp |
| Closing line beaten | 63.4% | 46.2% | +17.2 pp | 60.1% |
By lane
| Lane | Settled | Hit rate | Return | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely | 50/78 | 64.1% | 98.7% | +1.0 pp |
| Value picks | 3/3 | 100.0% | 206.3% | −0.9 pp |
| Totals & spreads | 32/60 | 53.3% | 104.2% | +1.0 pp |
| Specials | 2/7 | 28.6% | 50.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Sorceress's pick | 1/2 | 50.0% | 275.0% | – |
By sport
| Sport | Settled | Hit rate | Return | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 51/75 | 68.0% | 119.2% | +0.9 pp |
| Ice hockey | 25/46 | 54.3% | 99.3% | +0.9 pp |
| American football | 8/14 | 57.1% | 90.1% | +0.7 pp |
| Basketball | 4/13 | 30.8% | 54.2% | +1.7 pp |
| Handball | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
| Tennis | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
Days of the week
Mon 109.5%Tue 96.5%Wed 112.2%Thu 95.9%Fri 62.1%Sat 105.6%Sun 138.0%
Best day: Sun 138.0%Weakest day: Fri 62.1%
Top three picks by CLV
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (your time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv – Pallacanestro Olimpia MilanoEuroLeague | Basketball🏀 | Maccabi Tel Aviv to winLikelyMatch winner · 888Odds 1.67 · market 56.9% · our estimate 57% · edge -5.1%i | 1.67↓ 1.45CLV +9.1 pp | morning | Win | 97–79 (Maccabi Tel Aviv won) |
| Borussia Dortmund – Werder BremenBundesliiga | Football⚽ | Under 3.5 goalsTotals & spreadsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.97 · market 50.5% · our estimate 53% · edge +4.4%i | 1.97↓ 1.73CLV +7.0 pp | afternoon | Loss | 2–2 → 4 goals, line 3.5 |
| TUTO Hockey – HermesMestis | Ice hockey🏒 | TUTO Hockey to winLikelyMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · CoralOdds 1.44 · market 64.4% · our estimate 67% · edge -3.5%i | 1.44↓ 1.32CLV +6.3 pp | afternoon | Win | 3–2 SO (TUTO Hockey won in the shootout) |
Bottom three picks by CLV
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (your time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Basketball – ASVEL Lyon VilleurbanneEuroLeague | Basketball🏀 | Paris Basketball to winLikelyMatch winner · 1xBetOdds 1.44 · market 67.0% · our estimate 67% · edge -3.5%i | 1.44↑ 1.53CLV −4.1 pp | morning | Loss | Paris Basketball–ASVEL 96–98. |
| Lille – Le HavreLigue 1 | Football⚽ | Lille to winLikelyMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: F. Mambimbi, T. Pembélé, Stephan Zagadou, E. Jelert not in the squadOdds 1.48 · market 66.6% · our estimate 67% · edge -1.4%i | 1.48↑ 1.57CLV −3.9 pp | morning | Win | 1–0 (Lille won) |
| Real Sociedad – Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga | Football⚽ | Real Sociedad to winLikelyMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: J. Aramburu, P. Aubameyang, Z. Eddahchouri, Marc Casadó not in the squadOdds 1.66 · market 59.4% · our estimate 59% · edge -1.4%i | 1.66↑ 1.76CLV −3.4 pp | afternoon | Win | 3–2 (Real Sociedad won) |