Week 40 · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026
Picks
65
Settled
65/65
Hit rate
65.1%
41/63
Return (level stakes)
107.9%
Avg CLV
+0.8 pp
n = 39
Closing line beaten
46.2%
Voided
2
Summary
In week 40 BetSorceress published 65 picks, of which 41 won (65.1% of settled). At level stakes the return was 107.9%. The closing line was beaten on 46.2% of picks, by +0.8 percentage points on average. The best lane was Likely (113.9%), the weakest Totals & spreads (97.8%).
Comparison
| Metric | This week | Previous week | Change | Since 1 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picks | 65 | 38 | +27 | 49 |
| Hit rate | 65.1% | 65.8% | −0.7 pp | 59.6% |
| Return (level stakes) | 107.9% | 95.5% | +12.4 pp | 99.2% |
| Avg CLV | +0.8 pp | −1.3 pp | +2.1 pp | +1.1 pp |
| Closing line beaten | 46.2% | 35.7% | +10.5 pp | 46.9% |
By lane
| Lane | Settled | Hit rate | Return | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely | 27/35 (+2) | 77.1% | 113.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Totals & spreads | 12/24 | 50.0% | 97.8% | +1.3 pp |
| Specials | 1/2 | 50.0% | 83.5% | +1.9 pp |
| Sorceress's pick | 1/2 | 50.0% | 147.5% | – |
By sport
| Sport | Settled | Hit rate | Return | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 14/18 (+2) | 77.8% | 135.0% | +0.4 pp |
| Ice hockey | 7/14 | 50.0% | 97.4% | +3.0 pp |
| Basketball | 8/12 | 66.7% | 102.9% | −0.6 pp |
| American football | 6/11 | 54.5% | 80.9% | +0.4 pp |
| Tennis | 4/5 | 80.0% | 117.0% | – |
| Handball | 1/2 | 50.0% | 73.0% | – |
| Volleyball | 1/1 | 100.0% | 147.0% | – |
Days of the week
Mon 162.7%Tue 124.5%Wed 128.3%Thu 134.2%Fri 89.9%Sat 78.0%Sun 113.2%
Best day: Mon 162.7%Weakest day: Sat 78.0%
Top three picks by CLV
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (your time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche – St. Louis BluesNHL | Ice hockey🏒 | Colorado Avalanche to winLikelyMatch winner · incl. OT & shootout · 1xBetOdds 1.65 · market 73.5% · our estimate 74% · edge +21.3%i | 1.65↓ 1.35CLV +13.5 pp | night | Win | Colorado Avalanche 6–1 St. Louis Blues. |
| Eldense – Real OviedoSegunda División | Football⚽ | Under 2.5 goalsTotals & spreadsOver/Under 2.5 goals · bet365Odds 1.86 · market 50.5% · our estimate 56% · edge +4.2%i | 1.86↓ 1.60CLV +8.7 pp | afternoon | Loss | 4–1 → 5 goals, line 2.5 |
| Ässät – LukkoLiiga | Ice hockey🏒 | Under 5.5 goalsTotals & spreadsOver/Under 5.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · UnibetOdds 1.92 · market 48.9% · our estimate 53% · edge +1.8%i | 1.92↓ 1.70CLV +6.7 pp | afternoon | Win | 0–3 → 3 goals, line 5.5 |
Bottom three picks by CLV
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (your time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers – Tampa Bay BuccaneersNFL | American football🏈 | Green Bay Packers to winLikelyMatch winner (1X2)Odds 1.51 · market 63.4% · our estimate 63% · edge -4.3%i | 1.51↑ 1.67CLV −6.3 pp | night | Win | 17–14 (Green Bay Packers voitti) |
| Sporting Gijón – Celta FortunaSegunda División | Football⚽ | Sporting Gijón to winLikelyMatch winner (1X2) · PinnacleOdds 1.64 · market 58.8% · our estimate 59% · edge -3.6%i | 1.64↑ 1.79CLV −5.1 pp | morning | Win | 3–2 (Sporting Gijón voitti varsinaisella peliajalla) |
| BC Dubai – FenerbahçeEuroLeague | Basketball🏀 | Fenerbahçe to winLikelyMatch winner · BetssonOdds 1.44 · market 67.6% · our estimate 68% · edge -2.7%i | 1.44↑ 1.52CLV −3.6 pp | morning | Win | Fenerbahçe beat Dubai Basketball 76–66. |