Week 42 · 12–18 Oct 2026
Picks
169
Settled
169/169
Hit rate
58.6%
99/169
Return (level stakes)
102.3%
Avg CLV
+0.6 pp
n = 157
Closing line beaten
57.3%
Voided
0
Summary
In week 42 BetSorceress published 169 picks, of which 99 won (58.6% of settled). At level stakes the return was 102.3%. The closing line was beaten on 57.3% of picks, by +0.6 percentage points on average. The best lane was Specials (122.0%), the weakest Likely (101.1%).
Comparison
| Metric | This week | Previous week | Change | Since 1 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picks | 169 | 150 | +19 | 368 |
| Hit rate | 58.6% | 58.7% | −0.1 pp | 58.7% |
| Return (level stakes) | 102.3% | 103.2% | −0.9 pp | 102.3% |
| Avg CLV | +0.6 pp | +0.9 pp | −0.3 pp | +0.8 pp |
| Closing line beaten | 57.3% | 63.4% | −6.1 pp | 58.8% |
By lane
| Lane | Settled | Hit rate | Return | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely | 48/73 | 65.8% | 101.1% | +0.9 pp |
| Value picks | 5/9 | 55.6% | 114.4% | +0.1 pp |
| Totals & spreads | 41/79 | 51.9% | 101.7% | +0.5 pp |
| Specials | 5/7 | 71.4% | 122.0% | −0.2 pp |
| Sorceress's pick | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
By sport
| Sport | Settled | Hit rate | Return | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 53/95 | 55.8% | 98.0% | +0.8 pp |
| Ice hockey | 27/43 | 62.8% | 109.3% | +0.6 pp |
| Basketball | 17/24 | 70.8% | 122.1% | +0.1 pp |
| American football | 2/6 | 33.3% | 58.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Baseball | 0/1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.4 pp |
Days of the week
Mon 129.7%Tue 109.3%Wed 97.0%Thu 94.9%Fri 113.9%Sat 108.5%Sun 76.5%
Best day: Mon 129.7%Weakest day: Sun 76.5%
Top three picks by CLV
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (your time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente Enschede – FC ThunKonferenssiliiga | Football⚽ | Over 3.5 goalsTotals & spreadsOver/Under 3.5 goals · 1xBetOdds 1.91 · market 51.8% · our estimate 55% · edge +5.1%i | 1.91↓ 1.57CLV +11.3 pp | morning | Loss | 1–0 → 1 goal, line 3.5 |
| Birmingham City – Preston North EndChampionship (ENG) | Football⚽ | Birmingham City to winLikelyMatch winner (1X2) · LeoVegas (SE)note: B. Potts not in the squadOdds 1.65 · market 58.6% · our estimate 59% · edge -3.5%i | 1.65↓ 1.46CLV +7.9 pp | morning | Win | 4–0 (Birmingham won) |
| Vegas Golden Knights – Pittsburgh PenguinsNHL | Ice hockey🏒 | Over 6.5 goalsTotals & spreadsOver/Under 6.5 goals · incl. OT & shootout · PinnacleOdds 2.08 · market 49.8% · our estimate 52% · edge +8.2%i | 2.08↓ 1.81CLV +7.2 pp | night | Win | 6–2 → 8 goals, line 6.5 |
Bottom three picks by CLV
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (your time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth – SunderlandValioliiga | Football⚽ | Over 2.5 goalsTotals & spreadsOver/Under 2.5 goals · Pinnaclenote: D. Ballard, T. Meunier, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, J. Araujo, E. Kroupi, A. Scott not in the squadOdds 1.99 · market 49.9% · our estimate 54% · edge +7.5%i | 1.99↑ 2.36CLV −7.9 pp | morning | Loss | 2–0 → 2 goals, line 2.5 |
| Lincoln City – West Ham UnitedChampionship (ENG) | Football⚽ | Over 2.5 goalsTotals & spreadsOver/Under 2.5 goals · CasumoOdds 1.74 · market 56.4% · our estimate 60% · edge +4.4%i | 1.74↑ 1.93CLV −5.7 pp | morning | Win | 0–6 → 6 goals, line 2.5 |
| AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Be'er ShevaEurooppa-liiga | Football⚽ | AZ Alkmaar to winLikelyMatch winner (1X2) · Pinnaclenote: S. Resink, D. Biton, M. Baltaxa, Y. Malede not in the squadOdds 1.35 · market 71.2% · our estimate 71% · edge -3.9%i | 1.35↑ 1.46CLV −5.6 pp | afternoon | Win | 2–1 (AZ Alkmaar won) |