Week 43 · 19–25 Oct 2026
Picks
173
Settled
173/173
Hit rate
62.6%
107/171
Return (level stakes)
108.8%
Avg CLV
+0.7 pp
n = 162
Closing line beaten
55.6%
Voided
2
Summary
In week 43 BetSorceress published 173 picks, of which 107 won (62.6% of settled). At level stakes the return was 108.8%. The closing line was beaten on 55.6% of picks, by +0.7 percentage points on average. The best lane was Totals & spreads (115.9%), the weakest Value picks (95.8%).
Comparison
| Metric | This week | Previous week | Change | Since 1 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Picks | 173 | 169 | +4 | 541 |
| Hit rate | 62.6% | 58.6% | +4.0 pp | 60.0% |
| Return (level stakes) | 108.8% | 102.3% | +6.5 pp | 104.3% |
| Avg CLV | +0.7 pp | +0.6 pp | +0.1 pp | +0.7 pp |
| Closing line beaten | 55.6% | 57.3% | −1.7 pp | 57.7% |
By lane
| Lane | Settled | Hit rate | Return | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likely | 56/83 | 67.5% | 106.0% | +0.8 pp |
| Value picks | 2/4 | 50.0% | 95.8% | +1.7 pp |
| Totals & spreads | 39/66 | 59.1% | 115.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Specials | 10/18 (+2) | 55.6% | 98.1% | +1.4 pp |
By sport
| Sport | Settled | Hit rate | Return | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Football | 54/91 (+2) | 59.3% | 101.9% | +1.0 pp |
| Ice hockey | 36/57 | 63.2% | 114.3% | +0.5 pp |
| Basketball | 10/16 | 62.5% | 107.4% | −0.2 pp |
| American football | 4/4 | 100.0% | 157.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Baseball | 2/2 | 100.0% | 163.0% | +0.6 pp |
| Tennis | 1/1 | 100.0% | 138.0% | – |
Days of the week
Mon 94.0%Tue 120.5%Wed 121.6%Thu 85.4%Fri 116.4%Sat 105.9%Sun 114.5%
Best day: Wed 121.6%Weakest day: Thu 85.4%
Top three picks by CLV
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (your time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Norrkoping – Örebro SKSuperettan | Football⚽ | IFK Norrkoping to winLikelyEstimate ≥ marketMatch winner (1X2) · Coolbetnote: M. Watson, E. McCue not in the squadOdds 1.70 · market 56.0% · our estimate 58% · edge -1.4%i | 1.70↓ 1.53CLV +6.5 pp | morning | Loss | 2–2 (Draw) |
| Fenerbahce – Slavia PrahaMestarien liiga | Football⚽ | Fenerbahce to winLikelyMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetnote: Marco Asensio, M. Müldür, J. Oosterwolde, I. Ogbu, A. Ouanda not in the squadOdds 1.62 · market 60.7% · our estimate 61% · edge -1.7%i | 1.62↓ 1.47CLV +6.3 pp | afternoon | Loss | 2–2 (Draw) |
| R. MofokengUnion Saint-Gilloise – Hapoel Be'er Sheva · Eurooppa-liiga | Football⚽ | R. Mofokeng Over 0.5 shots on targetSpecialsShots on target Over/Under 0.5 · UnibetOdds 1.65 · market 60.6% · our estimate 63% · edge +4.0%i | 1.65↓ 1.50CLV +6.1 pp | afternoon | Loss | 0 shots on target, line 0.5 · 79 min |
Last 8: 5/8 over 0.5 · 55 min | ||||||
Last 8: 5/8 over 0.5 · 55 min | ||||||
Bottom three picks by CLV
| Match | Sport | Pick | Odds | Kick-off (your time) | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara – NecaxaLiga MX | Football⚽ | Under 3.5 goalsTotals & spreadsOver/Under 3.5 goals · Casumonote: L. Romo, J. Castillo, M. Tapias, O. Govea not in the squadOdds 1.70 · market 55.5% · our estimate 60% · edge +2.0%i | 1.70↑ 1.92CLV −6.7 pp | morning | Win | 1–0 → 1 goal, line 3.5 |
| Braga – Gil VicentePrimeira Liga | Football⚽ | Braga to winLikelyMatch winner (1X2) · Coralnote: Guilherme not in the squadOdds 1.60 · market 59.6% · our estimate 60% · edge -4.6%i | 1.60↑ 1.79CLV −6.6 pp | morning | Loss | 1–2 (GIL Vicente won) |
| Pafos FC – Riga FCKonferenssiliiga | Football⚽ | Pafos FC to winLikelyMatch winner (1X2) · 1xBetOdds 1.62 · market 59.6% · our estimate 60% · edge -3.5%i | 1.62↑ 1.80CLV −6.2 pp | morning | Loss | 1–1 (Draw) |